Daily forex forecast - 17/11/2010
Australian Dollar: The Australian dollar fell to its lowest level in over 2 weeks to 0.9724 against the US Dollar after minutes from the Reserve Bank showed its decision to raise interest rates another 25bp to 4.75% was 'finely balanced'. The RBA concluded 'the expected pick-up in domestic growth would be only in its early stages; the latest CPI outcome had been relatively good; and credit growth and housing prices were subdued. In addition, the exchange rate had appreciated over the past month, and quite significantly over a longer period, which would dampen inflation pressures somewhat.' Meanwhile fears China will clamp down on inflation intensified when Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the cabinet is drafting measures to counter overly rapid price gains, possibly imposing price ceilings, causing the Shanghai Composite Index to tumble 4%. The suggested pause by the RBA and likelihood of tightening by China weighed on the Aussie which declined 1.7% overnight against the US Dollar. This morning the Aussie opens at 0.9760 versus the US Dollar.
We expect a range today of 0.9700-0.9810
New Zealand Dollar: New Zealand's currency dropped 1.3% as stocks fell on speculation China will take more steps to cool inflation. The 21st Century Business Herald reported that China may adjust its economic policies for 2011 to tackle increasing inflationary pressure while the Securities Journal said China may impose price limits on food. Overnight equities continued to suffer with Dow Jones industrial average shedding 1.76% while the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500 both declined 1.75% over Ireland''s debt and problems it posed to the euro zone. The Kiwi fell from an intra-day high of 0.7755 against the Greenback to 0.7650 as investors sought refuge in the US Dollar. This morning the Kiwi starts the day at 0.7672 against the US Dollar.
We expect a range today of 0.7620- 0.7730
Great British Pound: The Pound traded around 1.6050 against the US Dollar for most of Asia before sliding below 1.6000 as concern that Europe's sovereign-debt crisis will worsen took hold. Overnight the Sterling fell from 1.6073 to 1.5837 against the Greenback, the most since May, despite October consumer prices for the year increasing at a faster pace than expected to 3.2%. The persistent upward pressure on prices will limit the Bank of England's ability to increase the scope of quantitative easing to further stimulate the British economy. British stocks sank the most in three months as Ireland held bailout talks amid the resurgent European debt crisis and concern mounted that China will step up measures to curb inflation. Today the Pound opens at 1.5888 against the US Dollar, 1.6264 against the Aussie and 2.0688 versus the Kiwi.
We expect a range today of 1.6220-1.6350
Majors: The US Dollar gained on the Japanese Yen overnight as risk appetite declined over concerns stemming from Europe and China. Japanese stocks fell following reports the Japanese Tertiary Industry Index fell by 0.9% in September 2010 following a decrease of 0.2% in August, according to the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Demand for the US Dollar remained reaching 83.58 Yen despite tepid increases in US production as investors focused on European issues. The Euro found support around 1.3600 against the US Dollar following better than expected economic sentiment from the ZEW survey. The Survey revealed sentiment had improved markedly jumping to 1.8 from -7.2 previously. With the Ireland's debt issue remaining unresolved the Euro fell to 1.3447 against the US following economic data from the US indicating the American economy was expanding, though slower than expected.
Data releases
AUD: MI Leading Index m/m, Wage Price Index q/q
NZD: No data today
JPY: No data today
GBP: Claimant Count Change, MPC Meeting Minutes
EUR: No data today
USD: Building Permits, CPI m/m, Housing Starts
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