Daily forex forecast - 17/12/2010
Australian Dollar: Consumer inflation expectations declined to a 4 month low, capping the Australian Dollar at 0.9875 US Dollars during the morning session. The median expected inflation rate decreased to 2.8% in December 3.1% inflation expected in November. Overnight the Aussie tackled 0.9900 US cents as risk appetite improved. The Aussie came under pressure as data on jobless claims, manufacturing and housing bolstered confidence in the world's largest economy sending the Aussie back down to 0.9830. US manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region accelerated to its highest level since April 2005, rising from 22.5 to 24.3. This morning the Aussie starts the day at 0.9877.
We expect a range today of 0.9817-0.9925
New Zealand Dollar: Business and consumer confidence declined as New Zealand''s economic recovery took a knock in the second half of this year with the stalling economic recovery making both consumers and businesses cautious committing to new activities. Consumer confidence fell to an 18 month low of 108.3 for the 4th quarter from 114.1 the previous quarter. The Kiwi dipped below 0.7500 against the Aussie Dollar for the first time in a decade overnight. Surprisingly strong manufacturing figures and improvements in unemployment claims out of America strengthened the Greenback, temporarily forcing the Kiwi down to 0.7330, its lowest level since the beginning of October. The Kiwi opens at 0.7375 versus the US Dollar.
We expect a range today of 0.7330-0.7420
Great British Pound: The Pound opens this morning at 1.5604 versus the US Dollar. Overnight a report showed U.K. retail sales increased for a second consecutive month in November. Sales increased 0.3% from October suggesting demand remains relatively steady in the British economy. Recent improvements in key UK economic data indicate the recovery of the British economy is maintaining momentum. The Pound rebounded from its 2 week low climbing to 1.5630 against the US Dollar following stronger than expected US data.
We expect a range today 1.5720-1.5870
Majors: The Euro reached an intra-day high of 1.3265 against the US Dollar following positive manufacturing and service figures. German manufacturing beat expectations at 60.9 vs. 58.2 while services slipped to 58.3 vs. 59.1. Figures for the Euro Zone showed the manufacturing gauge rose to 56.8 vs. 55.3 while services declined to 53.7 vs. 55.3. Strong improvements in US jobless claims, manufacturing and housing bolstered investor confidence in the US economy strengthening the Greenback against its Euro and Yen counterparts. The US Dollar rose above 84.40 Japanese Yen on the back of strong US data. Risk aversion in the market eased modestly following news EU leaders agreed to create a permanent crisis- management mechanism in 2013 while the IMF approved a 3 year, 22.5 billion loan for Ireland.
Data releases
AUD: No Data Today
NZD: No Data Today
JPY: No Data Today
GBP: Nationwide Consumer Confidence
EUR: German Ifo Business Climate, Trade Balance
USD: CB Leading Index (NOV)
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