Daily forex forecast - 18/11/2010
Australian Dollar: Wages in Australia rose by 1.1% over the third quarter, gaining 3.5% in the year ending September. Although less than the 1.2% increase the market have expected, Australia's third quarter growth in wages was the largest since 2008. Moving offshore the Aussie touched 0.9725 US Dollars early in the evening before unexpectedly good UK unemployment data triggered a positive rally in risk. The Aussie broke above 0.9830 versus the Greenback following softer US inflation and building figures justified the need for round 2 of QE for the American economy. Today the Australian Dollar starts the day at 0.9785.
We expect a range today of 0.9760-0.9830.
New Zealand Dollar: The Kiwi traded narrowly during Asia floating mostly between 0.7670-0.7685 against the US Dollar as investors paused for developments in New Zealand's $1.4 billion Kiwifruit industry. There are now 28 orchards in New Zealand that have tested positive for the bacterial disease PSA forcing some growers to cull their vines. Industry advocates have called for financial support from the New Zealand government. Overnight the Kiwi briefly touched 0.7630 versus the Greenback before reports of weak core US consumer prices reinforced the likelihood of further quantitative easing measures by the Fed. The New Zealand Dollar opens at 0.7686 ahead of this morning's producer prices reports.
We expect a range today of 0.7640-0.7730
Great British Pound: The British Pound stood still during Asia trading around 1.5880 against the US before dipping slightly to 1.5852 ahead of the UK's October claimant count change and unemployment rate. Unemployment in the UK remained steady at 7.7% however the number of claimants decreased significantly by 3700 for October. Expectations had been for an increase of 5100 jobless claims in October. The change in employment figures for the better charged the Sterling for an overnight rally targeting 1.5950 against the US Dollar. Ahead of today's British retail sales and public sector borrowing data releases the Pound opens at 1.5900 against the US Dollar. Meanwhile the Pound sits at 1.6235 and 2.0656 Versus the Aussie and Kiwi respectively.
We expect a range today of 1.6160-1.6260
Majors: Overnight the US Dollar reached an intra-day high of 83.50 against the Japanese Yen. The Japanese Leading Index was revised for September by the Cabinet Office in Japan. Preliminary results for the Leading index were 98.8 but were revised down to 98.6, falling 0.9 points from previous. The pair headed towards 83.00 Yen following weaker than forecast inflation figures from the US and gains in Japanese stocks, lead by automakers, attracting investors. The Euro also gained overnight on speculation the US Federal Reserve will follow through with their $600 billion bond purchase plan.
Data releases
AUD: Average weekly wages, AUG
NZD: Producer Prices, Q3
JPY: No data today
GBP: Retail sales, OCT
EUR: No data today
USD: Philadelphia Fed, NOV
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