Daily forex forecast - 19/11/2010
Australian Dollar: The Aussie rallied for a second day grappling with the US Dollar at 0.9900 offshore. Comments from Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan suggest the Green Isle may be drawing close to accepting aid from the EU and IMF which strengthened the Euro overnight. Lenihan said on Irish broadcaster RTE "The big difficulty is that the banks grew to such a size that they became too unmanageable for the state itself, that's why we have to consider external assistance to stabilize the banking system." Better than expected US economic data sustained investor optimism keeping the Aussie above 0.9850 US Dollars throughout the evening. This morning the Aussie opens at 0.9890.
We expect a range today of 0.9860-0.9930
New Zealand Dollar: New Zealand producer prices outpaced estimates with PPI Inputs growing 0.7% and Outputs expanding 1.2% in the 3rd quarter. Improved risk sentiment swung the Kiwi higher against the Greenback gaining 1% to 0.7783 overnight. The Philadelphia Fed survey for manufacturing in November soared to 22.5, the highest level in 9 months, from 1.0 previous suggesting ''firms remain optimistic about growth over the next six months." The Kiwi opens slightly off its high this morning at 0.7770 versus the US Dollar ahead of today's Credit card spending report.
We expect a range today of 0.7740-0.7800
Great British Pound: In the UK, retail sales figures printed on the mark growing 0.5% in October. However government borrowings increased by 9.8 billion, the largest October budget deficit since 1993. The increase in public finance cost highlighted the difficulty faced by the Conservative government to implement the austerity cuts proposed. Upon release of the news the Pound dipped below 1.5900 against the US Dollar before rallying above 1.6050 briefly later in the evening. Speculation that Ireland will receive international aid boosted demand for the Sterling as Ireland's central-bank governor commented he expects the country to seek a "substantial" bailout easing investor concerns. This morning the Pound opens higher at 1.6046 USD. Meanwhile the Pound sits at 1.6214 and 2.0620 versus the Aussie and Kiwi.
We expect a range today of 1.6150-1.6240
Majors: The Euro rose above 1.3600 against the US overnight as reports Ireland may ask for an international bailout came to light. Irish central bank Governor Patrick Honohan said he expected the agreement to amount to ''tens of billions'' as EU, IMF and ECB officials start to study Ireland's books. The Euro rose to 1.3667 against the US as fears eased over the Irish debts despite reporting an increase in the EU's September current account deficit. Meanwhile improvements in Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing reports helped the US Dollar rise to 83.77 against the Yen.
Data releases
AUD: No data today
NZD: Credit Card Spending report, OCT
JPY: All Industrial Activity Indes, SEP
GBP: No data today
EUR: German Producer Prices, OCT
USD: Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks at ECB Conference
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