Daily forex forecast - 19/1/2011
Australian Dollar: A sell off of the Aussie Dollar during Asian trade yesterday saw the currency pair dip briefly below 99 cents, however support held strong and offshore trade began back up around 0.9940. A declaration of support from European finance ministers overnight helped a rally in riskier assets and the Aussie used this as a launching pad for another attempt at parity.
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Fleeting success was seen however it failed to hold and we have since oscillated closely around 0.9980. Westpac Consumer Sentiment data is due for release later this morning and positive news may see immediate resistance tested just above parity, or negative news could bring into play support levels at 0.9960 and below this 0.9930.
We expect a range today of 0.9930 - 1.0020
New Zealand Dollar: Little of note has been seen this past 24 hours with the New Zealand Dollar as resistance at 0.7740 appears to be holding strong. Failing to capitalise on improved market sentiment, the Kiwi fell back from its intra-day highs and dipped below 77 cents to finds support at 0.7690. We open today marginally higher around the 0.7700 handle. The Kiwi has also been outperformed by the Australian dollar and it fell from highs near 0.7790 yesterday to 0.7715 in off-shore trade. Support was found here and we open the Asian session at 0.7725.
We expect a range today of 0.7650 - 0.7750
Great British Pound: The Pound Sterling gained some momentum as local inflation increased and confidence increases in the Euro-zone. The UK's CPI index reported 3.7% increase from this time last year and Cable jumped immediately above 1.6000 for the first time since November. Upside momentum was lost however and Sterling fell from its highs of 1.6050 back below 1.6000 to 1.5950. Attention is now being focused on today's unemployment data and with economists predicting no change in jobless claims, possible weak data is threatening to dim interest rate expectations and in turn the strength of the Pound. Inflation data also helped the Aussie and Kiwi cross rates, pushing back above 1.6000 against the Aussie and 2.0700 against the Kiwi. Failing to hold these levels, Sterling is back below these levels this morning at 1.5970 and 2.0680.
We expect a range today of 1.5890 - 1.6010
Majors: The Euro rallied and German bonds fell overnight as Euro-area finance ministers vowed to strengthen the safety net for debt-strapped countries yesterday. With investors seeing this as a reduction in risk, economic sentiment was also shown to improve as the German ZEW survey crushed expectations and reported a remarkable 15.4 over an expected 6.5. Moving from levels around 1.3300 at the beginning the European session, the Euro rallied to highs of 1.3460 before settling to start the morning around 1.3385. Also overnight, the New York Manufacturing Index rose less than expected posting an 11.9 rather than the 12.5 economists had forecast. This saw the Greenback also lose ground against the Japanese Yen and support at 82.35 was pushed following the announcement.
Data releases
AUD: Westpac Consumer Sentiment
NZD: No data due for release
JPY: Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
GBP: Claimant Count Change; Unemployment Rate
EUR: Current Account Balance
USD: Building Permits; Housing Starts