Daily forex forecast - 20/1/2011
Australian Dollar: A decline in consumer confidence did not hamper the Australian Dollar as it broke parity with the Greenback. According to an index compiled by Westpac consumer sentiment in Australia declined to a 7 month low of -5.7% in January on concerns the devastating floods will weaken the economy.
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The Aussie strengthened to a 2 week high of 1.0075 versus the US Dollar ahead of Chinese reports which are expecting economic growth to remain above 9% for the Asian giant. This morning the Aussie opens at 0.9992.
We expect a range today of 0.9930-1.0110
New Zealand Dollar: Risk was onside for the New Zealand Dollar as it rose to its highest level this year against the US Dollar. Momentum from IBM and Apple's positive earnings helped fuel the Kiwi's rally to 0.7786 against the Greenback. Reports from China today are expected to show inflation has cooled while growth remains stable for the global key player. The New Zealand Dollar starts the day buying 0.7690 US Dollars ahead of today's NZ inflation report.
We expect a range today of 0.7640.7720
Great British Pound: Mixed employment figures from the UK weakened the Pound against Greenback with the pair sliding to 1.5944 upon release before rising to 1.6036 overnight. Jobless claims unexpectedly fell -4100 in December to the lowest in 21 months. The decline in jobless claims did not reduce the nation's unemployment rate which printed at 7.9%. A matter of concern for investors was wage growth which did not keep pace with inflation, increasing only 2.1%. The Pound opens slightly higher against the Aussie at 1.6000 and 2.0793 versus the Kiwi.
We expect a range today of 1.5940-1.6050
Majors: Overnight the Euro rose to its highest level in almost 2 months reaching 1.3537 US Dollars. Figures out of the US indicating the country's economic recovery may remain sluggish. Housing starts declined to the lowest levels since October 2009 weakening the Dollar. The larger than expected number of US building permits could not shrug off the bearish cloud of sentiment hanging over the Dollar as it weakened again the Japanese Yen to a 2 week low of 81.84 offshore.
Data releases
AUD: MI Inflation Expectations
NZD: CPI Q4, Business Manufacturing
JPY: Leading Index (Nov)
GBP: CBI Industrial Order Expectations
EUR: German PPI m/m, ECB Monthly Bulletin, Consumer Confidence
USD: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
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CNY: CPI y/y, GDP q/y