Daily Forex Forecast 21/02/2011
Australian Dollar: The Aussie opens higher today at 1.0120 on the back of strong commodities and its yield advantage over the greenback. Equity markets in the Asian region have also performed well in recent sessions, providing support to currencies linked to growth such as the Aussie.
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In offshore trade, the unit hit a 10-day zenith of 101.57 US cents as minutes from a recent US Federal Reserve board meeting showed its dissatisfaction with jobs growth indicating to the market that interest rates in the United States will need to remain at a record low (0 - 0.25 per cent) for an extended period.
In recent weeks, the Aussie has been trading in a range between 0.9950 and 1.0200 with traders content to buy the currency on any dips. There is no major local economic data scheduled for release this week which may hinder any attempts to break through resistance around the 102US cent area. The Aussie hit a post-1983 float high of 1.0256 on December 31, 2010.
We expect a range today of 1.0100 - 1.0165
New Zealand Dollar: After flirting with fresh calendar-year lows last week around the US75 cent area, the New Zealand Dollar recovered during Friday's domestic and offshore sessions and opens this morning at 0.7620 against the greenback. The kiwi was one of several currencies to benefit from a broad decline in the greenback in recent days after minutes from a recent US Federal Reserve board meeting showed its dissatisfaction with jobs growth indicating to the market that interest rates in the United States will need to remain at a record low (0 - 0.25 per cent) for an extended period, enhancing its yield appeal. Further gains are expected to be limited today as the local market awaits the release tomorrow of the RBNZs 2-year inflation expectation report.
We expect a range today of 0.7590 - 0.7655
Great British Pound: Pound Sterling hit a 2-week zenith (1.6262) on Friday night after UK retail sales surged 1.9 per cent in January, compared with a drop of 1.4 per cent the previous month. The data adds to pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates from the record low of 0.5 per cent after a report last week revealed that inflation is well above the 2 per cent target. Broad greenback weakness late in the session also assisted the pound as it aims to re-test 3-month highs around 1.6277. Meanwhile, the pound opens higher against both the Australian Dollar (1.6050) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.1310).
We expect a range today of 1.5980 - 1.6075
Majors: The Euro (1.3695) rose to a 10-day high against the big dollar on Friday after a key European Central Bank (ECB) board member said the bank may need to raise rates due to inflationary pressures. With the US Federal reserve signalling again recently that US interest rates are likely to remain low for an "extended period", the market pounced on the comments from the ECBs Lorenzo Bini Smaghi from a yield play perspective. It was a session of broad-based greenback weakness with the US currency also hitting a one-week nadir against the Japanese Yen at 83.02. Meanwhile, as geo-political tensions continue in the middle-east, the Swiss Franc (0.9430) rose to a two-week high against the greenback.
Data releases
AUD: No data today
NZD: Performance Services Index (JAN)
JPY: No data today
GBP: Rightmove house prices (FEB)
EUR: Euro Zone Purchasing Managers Index (FEB)
USD: No data today
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