Daily Forex Forecast 21/03/2011
Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar has bounced dramatically off 3-month lows against the greenback around the 0.9780 area and opens the new week at 0.9950. The dollar fluctuated last Friday during another volatile session as investors initially sold high-yielding currencies amid escalating military tensions in North Africa. However, sentiment turned around and the Aussie rallied sharply to a high of 0.9978 as G7 finance ministers intervened in currency markets to weaken the Japanese Yen and support Japan's recovery from the catastrophic earthquake 10 days ago. A weaker Yen is designed to assist Japanese exporters. As a result, the Aussie has also recovered from 6-month lows against the Yen to open today at 80.39.
We expect a range today of 0.9880 - 1.0020
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar opens sharply higher today against the greenback at 0.7300. The local currencys fortunes turned around dramatically last Friday after G7 finance ministers vowed to intervene to weaken the Japanese yen to support Japans recovery from the devastating earthquake and tsunami. The kiwi rallied from a seven-month low of 0.7108 to a 24-high of 0.7320. Further gains are expected to be limited as there is no major local economic data until Wednesdays release of the current account balance for the fourth quarter.
We expect a range today of 0.7240 - 0.7340
Great British Pound: As G7 finance ministers vowed a co-ordinated effort to weaken the Japanese Yen, currencies rallied across the board and the pound hit a two-week high against the greenback on Friday of 1.6255. It opens this morning at 1.6230. A report released last Friday showed UK consumer confidence at a record low, dropping to 38 in February, fuelling concerns about the state of the economic recovery. Further gains are likely to be limited near-term as investors scale back expectations of a rate rise by the Bank of England. Meanwhile, the pound opens lower against both the Australian Dollar (1.6300) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.2220).
We expect a range today of 1.6280 - 1.6380
Majors: As the Japanese Yen soared to multi-decade highs last week, Group of Seven finance ministers agreed to jointly intervene in currency markets in the first co-ordinated effort since 2000. The yen (80.70) weakened dramatically against the greenback on Friday from 78.75 to 81.97 for its biggest intraday decline in over two years. A weaker Yen is designed to assist exporters as the Japanese economy recovers from the effects of the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami ten days ago. Further volatility is expected this week. Meanwhile, the Euro opens higher against the greenback today at 1.4175. The 17-nation currency hit a fresh four-month high on Friday at 1.4183 as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet indicated to reporters in Frankfurt the bank still plans to raise interest rates next month.
Data releases
AUD: No data today
NZD: Credit Card Spending, Feb
JPY: No data today
GBP: Rightmove House Prices, March
EUR: No data today
USD: Existing Home Sales, Feb