Daily forex forecast - 22/11/2010
Australian Dollar: The Aussie opens a shade lower against its US counterpart today at 0.9860. News late last week that China continues to take steps to curb inflationary pressures kept a lid on the unit around the US99 cent area. China is Australia's largest trading partner and it has once again ordered banks to set aside larger capital reserves. The potentially slowing effect on Chinese economic growth curtailed the Aussies 2-day rally. The local economic data front is lighter this week than Australian crickets current spin-bowling stocks and near-term direction will come from offshore events. Meanwhile, the Aussie opens steady against the Japanese Yen at 82.36.
We expect a range today of 0.9820 - 0.9925
New Zealand Dollar: The kiwi was confined to a mere 50 point range last Friday between a low of 0.7745 and a high just shy of US78 cents. Keeping a lid on the currency was news late last week that China continues to take steps to curb inflationary pressures. The local currency opens on Monday at 0.7782 and is likely to remain steady this week, underpinned by an official cash rate of 3 per cent compared to zero in the United States. Meanwhile, New Zealands economic recovery is progressing "very slowly" and "could be a prolonged process" according to Reserve Bank Governor Mr Alan Bollard who spoke at a tax conference in Auckland on Friday. Against the Australian Dollar, the kiwi opens today at 0.7880.
We expect a range today of 0.7750 - 0.7815
Great British Pound: The pound opens weaker against both the greenback (1.5980) and the Euro (0.8575) as speculation continued that Ireland will receive financial aid reduced demand for Sterling as a haven. Fridays session was largely a case of Euro strength across the board which for the most part kept a lid on the pound. The economic calendar is relatively light early this week until Wednesdays release of 3rd quarter economic growth data which most economists expect to come in around 0.8 per cent. Meanwhile, the pound is weaker against both the Australian Dollar (1.6170) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.0520).
We expect a range today of 1.6120 - 1.6235
Majors: The Euro opens higher across the board on Monday and is currently trading at 1.3700 against its U.S. counterpart as speculation continued that Ireland will receive financial aid. Recent heavy losses for the 16-nation currency have been largely attributed to risk-aversion amongst traders as sovereign debt concerns in the region surfaced once again. Risk appetite was also diminished somewhat again on Friday as China continues to take steps to curb inflationary pressures which could hurt the global economy. The Peoples Bank of China has ordered banks to set aside larger capital reserves raising the ratio by 50 basis points effective from November 29. Meanwhile, the big dollar is little changed against the Japanese Yen and opens today 83.40.
Data releases
AUD: No data today
NZD: No data today
JPY: No data today
GBP: No data today
EUR: Euro Zone consumer confidence, Nov
USD: Chicago Fed National activity index, Oct
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