Daily forex forecast - 27/10/2010
Australian Dollar: The Aussie was largely range bound during yesterday's domestic session moving between 0.9880 and 0.9920 ahead of todays release of third quarter inflation data. The Aussie has been well supported since Mondays strong producer price data whilst greenback weakness continues to be a major driver for high-yielding currencies at the moment. Overnight, the Aussie hit a high of 0.9926. A strong CPI figure today is largely factored into the currency at these levels which poses some risk to the downside for a short period should the data come in softer than expected. Some position-squaring ahead of the data has seen the Aussie retreat somewhat overnight to open this morning at 0.9843.
We expect a range today of 0.9775 - 0.9890
New Zealand Dollar: In the absence of any local economic data the kiwi remained well supported throughout yesterdays domestic session reaching a high of 0.7535. Greenback weakness continues to be the major theme driving the high-yielding currencies and the unit may re-test the key 0.7640 level seen earlier in October as the US Federal Reserve may announce next week a second round of quantitative easing. On the interest rate front, another pause is expected when the RBNZ makes its announcement on Thursday morning. In overnight trade, the kiwi hit a high of 0.7542 but opens lower today at 0.7478. Against the Australian Dollar, the kiwi is little-changed at 0.7590.
We expect a range today of 0.7445 - 0.7510
Great British Pound: Pound Sterling rallied across the board after British growth data come in at double market expectations. Gross domestic product for the third quarter showed 0.8 per cent pushing Sterling to an overnight high of 1.5895. Also assisting the currency overnight was confirmation of the UK's AAA credit rating by S & P and a restoration of its outlook from "negative" to "stable". The pound opens at 1.5835 against the greenback today. Meanwhile, the pound is sharply higher against the Australian Dollar (1.6085) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.1150).
We expect a range today of 1.6035 - 1.6140
Majors: The U.S. Dollar moved higher overnight against the Japanese Yen and opens on Wednesday at 81.42 on renewed speculation of intervention to weaken the Yen to protect exporters. Despite authorities in Japan acknowledging intervention six weeks ago, the currency has still managed to appreciate more than 5 per cent in that time. Meanwhile, the big dollar is also stronger against the Euro (1.3845) after the U.S. Conference Board's consumer sentiment index climbed to a better-than-expected 50.2 in October from a revised 48.6 in September. The 16-nation Euro zone currency fell from an overnight high of 1.3981.
Data releases
AUD: CPI, Q3
NZD: NBNZ Business Confidence, Oct
JPY: No Data today
GBP: No data today
EUR: No data today
USD: Durable Goods orders, Sep
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