Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar gained a full cent during Friday's trade as ongoing concern for rising oil prices and political unrest in Libya weaken the US Dollar. An absence of any local data to provide direction meant that offshore events bolstered the Aussie to weekly highs near 1.0175 after a dip below parity to lows of 0.9970 earlier in the week.

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The Greenback has pared some of its losses as oil prices retreated towards the end of the week, with Saudi Arabia assuring it would help cover the shortfall of oil in the market. Thus the Australian dollar opens the week slightly lower as this information was processed by investors over the weekend, currently trading at 1.0150.

We expect a range today of 1.0080 - 1.0190

New Zealand Dollar: After the devastating events of the earthquake in Christchurch last Tuesday, the Kiwi finished the week the worst performer against the Greenback losing 2.8% and closing the week marginally back above 0.7500. Opening lower once again as the US Dollar finds support from a retreat in oil prices, today's economic calendar holds the release of both Trade Balance figures and NBNZ Business Confidence. A strong performance from the Australian Dollar last week did not help the Kiwi and cross rate saw the Australian Dollar buying NZ$1.3550 by the week's end. With some market participants floating the idea the pair may be over-bought we open today still above $1.35 at 1.3540.

We expect a range today of 0.7450 - 0.7560

Great British Pound: The Great British Pound took a dive on Friday as revised figures showed the economy to contract more than previously thought. Fourth quarter GDP was downwardly revised from 0.5% to 0.6% and Sterling immediately fell from 1.61445 against the Greenback to test support at 1.6100. Trending lower still support was finally found at 1.6030 as investors processed not only the disappointing GDP figures but also a 2.5% drop in Business Investment; both sets of data presenting a potential hurdle for those pushing for tighter monetary policy. Sterling also starts the week significantly lower against the Australian Dollar, currently at 1.5870 but holding better against the Kiwi at 2.1480.

We expect a range today of 1.5800 - 1.5930

Majors: After a week where the markets were dominated by risk on oil, driven by the crisis in Libya, and interest rates the Greenback closed lower against its safe-haven counterparts, namely the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc. The Japanese Yen recorded its largest weekly gain against the greenback, up 1.8% to 81.68 during New York's Friday session as preliminary GDP figures also showed the US economy expanded at a rate much less than expected. A revised increase in US Consumer Sentiment failed to provide much needed support to the mighty Dollar and the Greenback finished the week lower against most of its counterparts. A flailing Euro was an exception to the rule and after holding stoically to weekly highs during the Asian session on Friday, it fell victim to some profit-taking as bullish investors closed out some long positions prior to the weekend.

Data releases

AUD: Private Sector Credit m/m; MI Inflation Gauge m/m

NZD: Trade Balance; NBNZ Business Confidence

JPY: Retail Sales y/y; Prelim Industrial Production m/m

GBP: No data due for release

EUR: CPI y/y; Core CPI y/y; German Import Prices m/m

USD: Pending Home Sales m/m; Chicago PMI; Personal Spending m/m

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