Daily Forex Forecast 28/03/2011
Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar has soared to fresh multi-decade highs above 1.0280 at the end of last week, and with no apparent catalyst to the move it reconfirms the current bullish momentum behind the commodity currency as market orders push the currency pair towards 103 cents.
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Still holding above 1.0230 by close of trade, the Australian Dollar pared these gains as members of the Fed signal a possible early end to the second round of quantitative easing as US domestic product is revised upwards for the last quarter of last year. With little scheduled on the economic calendar today, the Aussie opens slightly lower at 1.0235 and will most likely continue to seek direction from offshore events and commodities markets.
We expect a range today of 1.0180 - 1.0260
New Zealand Dollar: In a market driven by offshore events on Friday, the New Zealand Dollar traded a quiet Asian session either side of the 75 cent handle. A push higher to 0.7530 was seen early in European trade before a further rally ensued in New York testing resistance at 0.7570. Falling off as a result of US GDP figures we see the Kiwi open this week back at 0.7530 and after a late rally by the Australian dollar on Friday some ground has been recovered and we open higher at 0.7360.
We expect a range today of 0.7460 - 0.7550
Great British Pound: The woes of the Pound have continued as it becomes apparent the currency is in a convincingly bearish trend. Asian markets were quiet for most currencies on Friday and Cable managed to hold above 1.6100 for the duration. It seemed inevitable however, that support was to break and morning trade in London saw a drop from 1.6130 to test new support at 1.6060. Unfortunately any support was short-lived and as a possible early end to asset purchasing was thrown around in the US, Greenback strength depressed Sterling further. Opening momentarily below 1.6000 this morning we wait to see how the market will react to this key level, with a quiet day ahead on the calendar. Also suffering losses against the antipodeans, the Pound currently buys 1.5630 Aussie dollars and 2.1250 against the Kiwi.
We expect a range today of 1.5590 - 1.5700
Majors: The EUR has fallen from 4 month highs as members of the European Union failed to meet an agreement on a permanent bailout mechanism on Friday. Highs near 1.4250 reached earlier in the week were a result of interest rate speculation and although continued speculation insulated the fall the 17-nation currency still fell below 1.4080 by the close of New York trade. The Greenback was also boosted against the Euro as Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard put forward his case for a review of QE2 strategy. The second round of quantitative easing is due to end in June however based on some strong economic indicators of late he argues it may be worth considering ceasing the program or stopping a little short. This comes as final GDP figures for the last quarter of 2010 were revised upwards to 3.1%. This also boosted the US Dollar against the Yen barely out of its recent narrow trading pattern to 81.45 by close of markets on Friday.
Data releases
AUD: No data due for release
NZD: No data due for release
JPY: No data due for release
GBP: No data due for release
EUR: No data due for release
USD: Pending Home Sales m/m; Personal Spending m/m; Core PCE Price Index m/m
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