Daily forex forecast - 28/10/2010
Australian Dollar: A smaller than anticipated rise in the consumer price index took the Aussie from an intraday high of 0.9860 down to 0.9720 in very quick fashion as traders lowered their expectations for an interest rate rise when the Reserve Bank meets next week. Headline inflation rose 0.7 per cent in the September quarter, slightly less than the 0.8 per cent expected by most economists for a an annualised reading of 2.8 per cent.. During the offshore session, the unit moved as low as 0.9650 as commodities were softer and gold plunged 10 per cent to US$1,322/oz. Despite yesterday's sell-off, the Aussies uptrend against the greenback remains intact at this stage.
We expect a range today of 0.9650 - 0.9750
New Zealand Dollar: Against the greenback, the kiwi dollar opens at 0.7450. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has left the official cash rate (OCR) on hold at 3 per cent. In the accompanying statement moments after the announcement, RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard noted that "downside risks to the outlook for global growth continue". Meanwhile, the kiwi has outperformed its trans-Tasman rival over the last 24 hours and opens today at 0.7650 after Australian inflation data came in a shade softer than anticipated yesterday, lowering expectations for an interest rate rise next week when the central bank meets to discuss monetary policy.
We expect a range today of 0.7420 - 0.7520
Great British Pound: Pound Sterling opens marginally lower at 1.5769 as the greenback rallied across the board for a second consecutive session. Despite stronger-than-expected growth data for the third quarter, the pound is likely to remain under pressure near-term as the impact of last week's drastic UK budget cuts are still being digested by financial markets. In overnight trade, the pound moved down from a high of 1.5865 to a low of 1.5730. Meanwhile, the pound is higher against both the Australian Dollar (1.6220) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.1200).
We expect a range today of 1.6180 - 1.6290
Majors: The big dollar moved higher overnight against a basket of currencies on speculation that the second round of quantitative easing will be a gradual process rather than a large upfront commitment. The greenback has climbed to a two-week high against the Japanese Yen at 81.68. New home sales in the United States increased 6.6 per cent to an annual pace of 307,000 in September which was also dollar-supportive. Over in Europe, sovereign debt concerns surfaced once more after Greece's Finance Minister said a shortfall in tax revenues was hampering efforts to reduce the budget deficit. The 16-nation euro currency opens lower today at 1.3760.
Data releases
AUD: Conference Board Leading Index, Aug
NZD: RBNZ Rate decision (see above)
JPY: Retail Sales, Sep
GBP: Nationwide House Prices, Oct
EUR: German Unemployment change, Oct
USD: Initial jobless claims, Oct 23
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