Daily forex forecast - 29/11/2010
Australian Dollar: Australia was confronted with an unusually dovish Glenn Stevens on Friday, as the RBA's Governor testified before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. Stating the current monetary policy was 'a little tighter than average' it was said that interest rates were appropriate and would not be moving for quite some time. With investors now pushing out the next anticipated rates rise to mid 2011, the Australian Dollar tumbled to lows just above 0.9610 and closed the week 2.5% lower than opening levels. With risk-appetite currently taking a major hit due to a beleaguered Euro-zone economy and increasing geo-political threats the Australian dollar will struggle to find any upward momentum heading into this week. Opening at 0.9640 investors look towards local home sales data due out later today; past the psychological barrier of 0.96 cents support for the Aussie lies at 0.9570.
We expect a range today of 0.9610 - 0.9720
New Zealand Dollar: After last week's downgrade of the New Zealand dollar by S&P, the commodity currency continues to struggle in a risk averse market. Falling below 76 cents during Asian trade on Friday, offshore markets bore witness to further losses seeing the Kiwi trade down to 0.7480. Events surrounding Australia's monetary policy saw the Kiwi gain ground against the AUD however, jumping 50 points initially and trading to a high of 0.7810. Opening this week at 0.75 and 0.7780 against the Greenback and the Australian dollar respectively, markets await results of the National Bank of New Zealand's Business Confidence survey.
We expect a range today of 0.7480 - 0.7550
Great British Pound: The Pound continues to struggle against the Greenback as investor's focus on troubled European economies and flock back to safe-haven assets. Its proximity to Europe has left the UK even more vulnerable and this manifested itself in almost a 5 cent drop over the course of last week. With local housing data failing to provide support after a 0.8% fall in October, Sterling fell below 1.56 at the very end of last week and some experts are predicting this break could signal further losses. Opening today at 1.5590, the Pound has also given up recently gained ground against the Aussie (1.6160) and the Kiwi (2.0770).
We expect a range today of 1.6030 - 1.6160
Majors: The markets open this morning to news of an 85 billion Euro aid package agreed for Ireland and its struggling banking sector. The emergency aid package will be comprised of a 67.5 billion euro payment from the European Union and International Monetary Fund, with 17.5 billion coming from Ireland's own pension reserves. With risk aversion weighing heavily on the markets, the single currency has found some degree of support off the back of this morning's announcement helping the Euro hold above Friday's 3-month lows of 1.3200 and open this week around 1.3240. Another stimulus package was announced at the end of last week with the Japanese government passing a $61 billion injection designed to kick-start the country's economic recovery. CPI figures released from Japan on Friday showed consumer price levels fell for the 20th consecutive month in October, resulting in the USD/JPY rallying above 84.00. Holding onto these gains on this week's open we see the Greenback trading against the Yen just below 84.10.
Data releases
AUD: HIA New Home Sales m/m
NZD: NBNZ Business Confidence
JPY: Retail Sales y/y
GBP: Net Lending to Individuals m/m
EUR: No Data Due Today
USD: No Data Due Today
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