Daily forex forecast - 3/2/2011
Australian Dollar: After reaching almost monthly highs yesterday, the Australian Dollar has fallen back as a result of both local and international pressures. The dollar fell as Cyclone Yasi and its devastating winds crossed Queensland's northeast coastline, the potential economic impact weighing on the value of our currency.
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Positive employment figures from the US and ongoing instability in Egypt have also aided a rally in the US Dollar and a combination of these factors lead to a fall of almost a cent, from highs near 1.0145 yesterday to lows of 1.0055. Today brings the release of Building Approvals in December as well as the month's Trade Balance and with some key US data also due tonight some volatility may be witnessed in the currency pair.
We expect a range today of 1.0000 - 1.0150
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar spent most of yesterday trading near 10 week highs against the US Dollar, with a clear line of resistance established near 0.7820. Bolstered by soaring prices of whole milk powder, New Zealand company and the world's largest dairy exporter Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd confirmed prices had risen 7.6% over the past 2 weeks. A rally in the Greenback spurred by US employment figures and some risk aversion in the markets mean these gains were short-lived and the Kiwi fell back to 0.7780, where we open this morning. Trading at 0.7715 against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand's key unemployment figures are due out this morning.
We expect a range today of 0.7730 - 0.7820
Great British Pound: The Pound has been one of the currencies to rise against the Greenback over the past 24 hours as Building Data boosts the speculation the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates. Construction PMI came in well above expectations at 53.7 and this helped Cable rally to 3 month highs near 1.6230.
Some predictions have been made for 3 rate hikes in 2011 which would see the cash rate at 1.25% compared to the current 0.5%. Slipping back somewhat from overnight highs Sterling opens today at 1.6190 against the US Dollar, 1.6050 against the Aussie and 2.0800 against the Kiwi.
We expect a range today of 1.5960 - 1.6100
Majors: The Euro slumped overnight as Ireland had its credit rating cut once more by Standard & Poor's. The downgrade from A to A- reflected S&P's concerns of the uncertainties surrounding the size of Ireland's additional capital needs and the markets took heed. The Euro lost 0.4% against the Greenback, hitting lows of 1.3770 and significant ground was also lost against the Pound. The US Dollar index strengthened offshore, rising against most of its major trading partners as troubles in Egypt continue to weigh on investors' minds. Adding further fuel to the Dollar was the ADP Employment report which showed U.S. private employers to have added 187,000 jobs in January. These figures, which were 39,000 more than expected, come in the lead up to Friday's all important Non-Farm Payroll release and the positive results were well received by investors pushing the Greenback closer to 82.00 against the Yen, falling just short near 81.85.
Data releases
AUD: Building Approvals m/m; Trade Balance
NZD: Employment Change q/q; Unemployment Rate
JPY: No daya due for release
GBP: Services PMI
EUR: Minimum Bid Rate; Retail Sales m/m
USD: Unemployment Claims; ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; Factory Orders m/m