Daily forex forecast - 7/2/2011
Australian Dollar: The Aussie rallied half-a-US-cent during local trade on Friday hitting a high of 1.0199 after The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) signalled in its quarterly monetary policy statement that further rate rises are on the cards. The statement included updated forecasts for growth in GDP and inflation.
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Whilst final growth figures for 2010 have been scaled back, forecasts by the RBA for 2011 have been upgraded to 4.25 per cent. In offshore trade, the unit moved back down to a 24-hour low of 1.0110 as the greenback advanced across the board after the US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 9 per cent in January, down from 9.4 per cent the previous month. The Aussie opens this morning at 1.0113.
We expect a range today of 1.0080 - 1.0145
New Zealand Dollar: The Kiwi is still reeling from last week's jobs numbers and opens this morning at 0.7680. Prior to the announcement of the December unemployment rate, which rose from 6.4 to 6.8 per cent, the local dollar had been testing resistance around US78 cents. In offshore trade, the unit moved to a 24-hour low of 0.7665 as the greenback advanced across the board after the US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 9 per cent in January, down from 9.4 per cent the previous month. The kiwi has also lost ground on the Australian Dollar with the NZD/AUD cross rate opening on Monday at 0.7580.
We expect a range today of 0.7640 - 0.7720
Great British Pound: Greenback strength across the board on Friday night took Pound Sterling (1.6080) from an intraday high of 1.6171 down to 1.6035. Traders are likely to be cautious ahead of this weeks Bank of England policy meeting where a push for higher interest rates to keep a lid on inflation will be hotly debated.
Economic data released last week showed that manufacturing was gathering pace which helped push the pound to a two-month high against the greenback of 1.6277. Meanwhile, the pound opens higher against both the Australian Dollar (1.5903) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.0930).
We expect a range today of 1.5850 - 1.5940
Majors: The big dollar rose against the Japanese Yen (82.18) and advanced for a third day against the Euro (1.3550) as the US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 9 per cent in January, down from 9.4 per cent the previous month. The 16-nation Euro zone currency hit a two-week low of 1.3542 during trade on Friday after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said inflation has been prompted "mainly" by rising energy costs, taking the wind out the sails of traders who had hitherto bet that interest rates would rise sooner rather than later from the record low of 1 per cent.
Data releases
AUD: Retail Sales, Jan
NZD: No data today
JPY: Leading Index, Dec
GBP: No data today
EUR: No data today
USD: Consumer Credit, Dec