Daily Forex Forecast 7/28/2011
Australian Dollar:
In what proved to be a monumental day for the Australian Dollar the nation's currency surged to an all-time post float high against its US Counterpart reaching a rate of 1.1079 late in the Asian Session. Driving the Aussie higher yesterday was the release of the highly anticipated CPI Data with an inflationary figure of 0.9 percent coming in well above market expectation as prices advanced 3.6 percent from a year earlier.
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As the Currency surged, traders expectation of a potential interest rate hike gained momentum increasing the likelihood that the RBA will resume tightening policy sooner rather than later, ending its longest Interest rate pause since 2007. Meanwhile we see the Australian Dollar open noticeably higher at a rate of 1.1018 this morning, having appreciated a staggering 22 percent in the past 12 months.
We expect a range today of 1.0960 -1.1060
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand Dollar advanced yesterday after a survey showed business confidence rose to a 14-month high in July. As the New Zealand economy remains one of the few developed nations with a strengthening outlook, the recent string of sound economic fundamentals continues to support the nation's currency as it surged to an overnight high of 0.8764 against its US Counterpart. With a slight return back into the US Currency by investors overnight and the RBNZ keeping the benchmark cash rate unchanged this morning at 2.50 percent we see the kiwi open slightly higher compared to the same time yesterday currently buying 87.20 US Cents.
We expect a range today of 0.8650 - 0.8745
Great British Pound:
The Great British Pound lost ground against its US counterpart yesterday as a U.K index of factory orders fell to the lowest in two years as exports flagged. As business optimism continues to dwindle the British economy remains destined to continue along the road of a slow economic recovery at least in the near term. Overnight the Sterling was sold across the board as a result dropping as low as 1.6311 against its US Counterpart before recovering slightly to open this morning a full cent lower at a rate of 1.6330. In other significant movements yesterday the Sterling also lost considerable ground against the Australian Dollar opening this morning at a rate of 1.4808.
We expect a range today of 1.4760 - 1.4855
Majors:
A government report released out of the US overnight showed orders for durable goods unexpectedly decreased in June and inventories climbed at the slowest pace in a year. With such results providing further evidence that companies are losing confidence in the strength of the US recovery US Stocks declined yesterday dragging the S&P 500 Index down the most in almost two months.
Despite such poor results the US Dollar advanced throughout all sessions yesterday capping losses in what has been a monumental week for the US Greenback, overnight the US Currency rallied against the Japanese Yen Trading as high as 77.956. Meanwhile a slight return to the Greenback was also evident in the EURO/USD cross trading which traded as low as 1.4338 opening this morning a full cent lower at a rate of 1.4370. With mixed results out of the EURO last night, talks of the US Debt Ceiling are likely to again dominate headlines in the comings days as lawmakers indicate they were no closer to reaching a compromise.
Data releases
USD: No Data Today
NZD: Official Cash Rate
JPY: Retails Sales y/y
GBP: CBI Realized Sales
EUR: German Unemployment Change
USD: Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales m/m
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