Daily forex forecast - 9/2/2011
Australian Dollar: The Aussie traded a familiar recent band during local trade on Tuesday between 1.0115, where the currency is finding some support, and a high around 1.0135. Despite a lack of direction, the Aussie has been buoyed recently on the back of firmer commodity markets and improving economic data coming out of the United States.
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A business survey released by the NAB yesterday revealed that confidence rose 4 points in January however, this had very little impact on the currency. During the offshore session, the Aussie moved up to a high of 1.0188 as the price of gold rallied to a 3-week high of US1,367.90/oz.
We expect a range today of 1.0110 - 1.0200
New Zealand Dollar: Like its Australian counterpart, the New Zealand Dollar is lacking direction for the time being as the market awaits key offshore economic data scheduled for release later in the week. Thursday sees the release of Australian jobs data along with interest rate decisions in Europe and the United Kingdom. The kiwi opens today at 0.7740 against the greenback after trading between a low of 0.7695 and a high of 0.7786 over the last 24 hours. The move higher occurred offshore as the price of gold rallied to a 3-week high of US1,367.90/oz. On the cross rates, the kiwi is stronger against the Aussie at 0.7620.
We expect a range today of 0.7725 - 0.7790
Great British Pound: Pound Sterling moved lower overnight against the greenback (1.6055) and Euro (0.8482) after UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne increased a tax on banks aimed at raising 800 million pounds to reduce the budget deficit.
The impact on the currency is likely to be short-lived as the market will again focus on the direction of interest rates. The Bank of England meets tomorrow night where rates are widely tipped to remain on hold at 0.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the pound opens lower against both the Australian Dollar (1.5810) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.0730).
We expect a range today of 1.5740 - 1.5835
Majors: Despite a 25-basis point interest rate rise in China on Tuesday, investors sold the greenback against a basket of currencies. The big dollar opens today against the Japanese Yen at 82.30 after hitting an overnight low of 81.76 - its biggest intraday fall in a week. As commodities rose and the price of gold touched a 3-week high at US1,367.90/oz, the market eschewed the safety of the US Dollar and moved into Asian currencies ties to growth. Meanwhile, the Euro moved higher overnight (1.3688) and opens this morning at 1.3625.
Data releases
AUD: Consumer confidence, Feb
NZD: QV House prices, Jan
JPY: Consumer confidence, Jan
GBP: Visible trade balance, Dec
EUR: German trade balance, Dec
USD: No data today
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