The Deadline for Global Warming: Reversing the Effects of Climate Change Before 2017
If energy-efficiency policies, price reforms, new emissions-free infrastructures and increased renewable energy subsidies aren't firmly in place by 2017 then it might become too late to turn back the tide against the effects of climate change, according to the recently released World Energy Outlook by the IEA (International Energy Agency).
Most infrastructures in the world today depend on fossil fuels, which result in carbon dioxide emissions. To keep global warming below 2°C, new infrastructures (like factories, buildings and power stations) built after 2017 should be free from carbon dioxide emissions. The world can only emit the equivalent of 1 trillion tons of emissions to stay below the limit for global warming.
In the coming years, these old infrastructures will emit the equivalent to eighty percent of the allowable carbon dioxide emissions.
Since the effects of these old infrastructures are already going to last for decades, it is crucial to build new infrastructures that are reliant on solar and wind energy rather than fossil fuels. Any further delay would result in even more expense in the future, since building low-emissions infrastructures later on would cost four times as much as it would today.
Overall, world demand will only increase for all sources of energy. For example, the demand for oil, natural gas and coal will range from fifteen to thirty-two percent.
Despite the negative effects highlighted by the reactor meltdown in the Fukushima power plant in Japan, countries such as China, Korea and India have continued with plans to build more power plants. There will also be rising demand for unconventional gases coalbed methane, tight gas and shale gas.
Emerging economies will be among the major players in the energy markets in the future. By 2035, China will consume 70 percent more energy than the United States and India, Indonesia, Brazil and the Middle East will have an increased energy consumption as well. Russia will still remain a major player and energy producer.
An investment totalling $38 trillion is needed between 2011 to 2035 to adequately meet global energy needs. However, the IEA's proposed changes have been called unrealistic given the state of the world's economy, politics and current technology. For now, unless drastic measures are taken it seems that there is a high probability that world will not reach the climate target for 2017.