Diary: Aussie Inflation, US, Apple Earnings, Growth

It is going to be yet another busy week for markets here and offshore, even with the holiday Wednesday for Anzac Day.

There's Aussie inflation and interest rates, the US Federal Reserve, and then first quarter growth, plus the busiest week so far for American earnings.

And those first quarter earnings in the US will be dominated by Apple's report tomorrow night which could make or break the current level of sentiment in equities.

In Australia the big focus will be on March quarter inflation data to be released tomorrow by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

It's important because the Reserve Bank has tied an interest rate cut in May to a benign outcome from the underlying rate of inflation.

The AMP's Dr Shane Oliver says their forecast of for a 0.7% rise in headline inflation is expected to rise 0.7% for the quarter or 2.2% year on year.

(HSBC sees a headline rate of 0.6% for the CPI.)

Underlying inflation is tipped at 0.5% in the quarter and 2.25% year on year, both of which are at the low end of the RBA's 2% to 3% target range.

"While seasonal rises in prices for health, utilities and education and a rise in petrol prices will boost headline inflation, underlying inflation pressures are likely to have remained subdued thanks to soft demand and the strong $A," Dr Oliver said.

Producer prices are out later today from the ABS.

On Thursday, the Federal Department of Education and Workplace Relations will release its skilled vacancies index for March.

And on Friday new home sales data for March will be released by the Housing Industry Association.

In corporate news, the quarterly production and exploration reports from the mining sector continues with Newcrest Mining and OZ Minerals reporting third and first quarter figures respectively.

Oil Search, Beach Energy and Roc Group also release reports.

Macquarie Group reports full-year results on Friday, while tomorrow Wesfarmers reports third quarter sales for Coles and its other retailing brands, plus for its resources division.

Meetings will include: Brisbane Broncos Ltd, Pryme Energy Ltd, Buccaneer Energy Ltd, GTI Resources Ltd, Millennium Minerals Ltd, MOD Resources Ltd, Ausenco Ltd, Buderim Ginger, NewSat Ltd, Freedom Foods Group Ltd, Coalspur Mines Ltd, Empire Oil & Gas Ltd, Mindax Ltd, Sherwin Iron Ltd and Tasmania Mines Ltd.

In Asia we get the HSBC 'flash' manufacturing PMI for China later today.

It will be watched to see whether it recovers from the sharp fall in the full survey for March.

And Japanese economic data is due out on Friday.

Figures on inflation, employment, retail sales and Japanese data is likely to be consistent with modest economic growth but continuing deflation.

The Bank of Japan meeting also on Friday will be watched for evidence that BoJ Governor Shirakawa is as committed to further monetary easing and his 1% inflation goal as he says he is (as recently as earlier this month).

Earnings reports start flowing in from some Asian countries with Samsung Electronics reporting in South Korea.

In the US, the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday is unlikely to see any changes to monetary policy but the post-meeting statement early Thursday morning will be watched closely for indications as to how confident the Fed is regarding the economic outlook and the prospect for any further stimulus.

The Fed issues the statement at 2.30am our time Thursday, the group releases new economic forecasts a couple of hours later and then Fed chairman Ben Bernanke holds his now usual quarterly news conference shortly after.

On the US data front, the AMP's Dr Shane Oliver says we can expect flattish house prices (Tuesday), a small rebound in new home sales (Tuesday) and pending home sales (Thursday), unchanged consumer confidence (Tuesday) and a slight fall back in durable goods orders (Wednesday).

Friday's first estimate of third quarter GDP will be watched closely for signs of the economy slowing.

It grew 3% in the December quarter (annual) for a 1.7% rate for all of 2011.

Estimates for the March quarter range from 1.8% to 3.6% (annual).

Nearly 180 of the S&P 500's companies will report earnings this week.

US analysts say the market will need strong reports to offset the perception that there's no more room to rally.

Key to the week will be Apple Inc which reports after the market close tomorrow night, our time.

While the largest US company by market capitalization has a history of blowout quarters, many say the company's meteoric rise so far this year has created unrealistic expectations.

For the first time since December 2008 the stock fell more than 4% in back-to-back weeks last week.

Other earnings will come from major drug companies like Merck and Bristol-Myers and big oil companies including ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell, as well as industrial giants such as Boeing and Caterpillar. Consumer groups like Amazon and Starbucks also report, as well as dozens of others.

They include ConocoPhillips, DR Horton, Eaton, Hasbro, Texas Instruments, US Steel, Corning, Delta Airlines, Glaxo SmithKline, Eli Lilly, Credit Suisse, Harley-Davidson, SAP, Corning, AutoNation, Pepsico, Unilever, Time Warner Cable, Pulte Group, Aetna, Raytheon, Kellogg, Lockheed Martin, AstraZeneca, UPS, Colgate-Palmolive, Chevron, Merck, Procter and Gamble, Sanofi, International Paper, Weyerhaeuser, Goodyear Tire, and Newmont Mining,

So far, with 23% of S&P 500 companies (around 131 companies) having reported, Reuters says 83% have beaten expectations, even if earnings have fallen (like GE last week).

Profit growth in this quarter has been up 6.2% which is a bit better than expected.

In Europe, PMIs for both manufacturing and services (Monday) will be watched closely.

So far they are consistent with a mild recession for the eurozone.

The results from yesterday's first round of the French Presidential election will also be watched very closely. President Sarkozy is on the backfoot and could be beaten in the first of two rounds of voting.

UK first quarter GDP data will be released later in the week.

A negative outcome (forecast by the IMF and some UK economists) will mean the country is back in a technical recession.