DIARY: Aussie Jobs, US Earnings, Bernanke Speeches, Chinese Data
Another big week ahead for global markets with important data releases, on top of reaction to the lower than expected US jobs figures for March.
We get Chinese first quarter and March economic data, Australian employment figures and the start of the March quarter earnings season in the US.
And watch for two speeches from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke which could again send markets into a spin, as a speech of his a fortnight ago did.
More than anything, the Chinese data will drive sentiment on markets, especially if it's soft which will raise more speculation about a hard landing in China.
After the mixed Chinese inflation data yesterday we get first quarter growth figures and other data over the rest of the week.
Later today we get Chinese details of China's trade for March and the first quarter.
We should expect another soft month for exports and the trade deficit.
March quarter GDP growth on Friday is forecast to have slowed to 8.5%, (although some US analysts are saying the annual rate could be 8%).
It is suggested by leaks in Chinese media at the weekend that the economy grew by an annual 8.4% in the quarter, down 0.5% from the 8.9% rate in the final quarter of last year.
The AMP's chief economist Dr Shane Oliver expects March data for Chinese money supply and loan growth (Wednesday), industrial production, retail sales and investment (all due Friday) to have accelerated.
"Overall expect the data to point to a soft landing but with plenty of scope to ease policy if need be," he wrote at the weekend.
In Australia, the jobs data for last month dominate this week.
We get the monthly survey of job ads in newspapers and the internet from the ANZ today.
Then the jobs data for March on Thursday.
Most economists are looking for a small fall of 5,000 to 10,000 jobs in the month.
The unemployment rate is tipped to rise to 5.3% from 5.2%.
The big question is whether the recent spate of job losses finally catches up with the economy's capacity to absorb the newly made unemployed, or whether it continues to soak them up, as it did in January and February.
As well we get the NAB business confidence and conditions survey later today and consumer confidence tomorrow, in addition to housing finance data also tomorrow (expected to show a small fall).
In the corporate area, quarterly production reports from BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Woodside Petroleum and Fortescue Metals will dominate, while Bank of Queensland will confirm the first half loss after write-downs revealed three weeks ago.
Rio Tinto (first) and Fortescue Metals Group (third) release their quarterlies later today.
Tomorrow sees BHP Billiton release its third quarter production and sales report.
BHP declared force majeure on its Queensland coal exports last week and with more industrial trouble expected soon, the company will be bracing itself for a hit to earnings in its coal division.
On Thursday, first quarterly production data will be released by Woodside Petroleum and Santos.
Elsewhere, Commonwealth Bank of Australia will announce an update to its corporate strategy, while Telstra will hold an investor briefing on the implementations of the national broadband network.
Analysts are looking for the Telco to provide an update on possible capital management ideas.
And the Ten Network is expected to release its interim earnings this week.
The ACCC is expected to announce Foxtel/Austar takeover decision later today.
Meetings in Australia this week include Apollo Minerals Ltd, APN News & Media Ltd, Energy Resources of Australia Ltd, Apex Minerals NL, Equator Resources Ltd, Macquarie Atlas Roads Ltd and MUI Corporation Ltd.
In the US we see the start of the earnings season with Alcoa reporting tonight, our time.
Big banks, led by JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo and Google Inc release their results later in the week.
The Fed's Beige Book of anecdotal evidence about the Australian economy will also be released tomorrow.
Producer and consumer prices and consumer sentiment are due on Thursday and Friday.
US stocks lost ground last week with the Dow down 1.2%.
The S&P 500 Index dropped 0.7% on the week, and the Nasdaq Composite posted a weekly loss of 0.4%.
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will also be a dominant factor in the US this week with two speeches.
Last night he delivered a speech about improving financial stability at a conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in Stone Mountain, Georgia.
And on Friday Bernanke will speak at a conference in New York on the crisis and the policy response to it.
The weak jobs report for March will see markets looking for comments from Mr Bernanke on the economy.
Hopes for another round of large-scale bond purchases by the Fed were seemingly dashed last week by minutes from the central bank's latest policy meeting.
That could provide support for equities, analysts said.
This week sees the start of the release of the International Monetary Fund's (northern) Spring edition of the World Economic Forecasts.
Tonight it is due to publish its world economic outlook analytical chapters.
Later in the week it publishes the financial stability chapters.
The main forecasts are due out next week.
Elsewhere in Asia, the Bank of Japan meets and will release its latest monetary policy decision which will be no change in interest rates for yet another month.
In Europe home price figures for the UK are out tonight, our time.
The European Central Bank will release its monthly report, while February EU industrial production is also due.
February trade figures are due in the UK Thursday night, our time, while on Friday the March producer price index is set for release.
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