Earthquake Prediction may Improve with New Study of Earth’s Past
A new study on plate tectonics will allow researchers to predict when and where earthquakes will occur, scientists believe.
Researchers led by Dr. Fabio Capitanio of Monash University's School of Geosciences, who reviewed the formation of the Andes 45 million years ago, said understanding the forces driving tectonic plates will allow researchers to predict shifts and their consequences.
Researchers described a new approach to plate tectonics that will help explain the formation of mountain ranges, opening and closing of oceans, and predict the occurrence of earthquakes.
Capitanio tried a new approach in studying plate tectonics after existing theories had failed to explain several features of the development of the Andes.
"We knew that the Andes resulted from the subduction of one plate, under another; however, a lot was unexplained. For example, the subduction began 125 million years ago, but the mountains only began to form 45 million years ago. This lag was not understood," Capitanio said.
"The model we developed explains the timing of the Andes formation and unique features such as the curvature of the mountain chain," he added.
The researcher explains that while the existing models can help describe the movement of the plates as it is happening, they cannot say when they will stop, or whether they will speed up, and so on.
"I developed a three-dimensional, physical model -- I used physics to predict the behaviour of tectonic plates. Then, I applied data tracing the Andes back 60 million years. It matched," he concluded.
The project was in collaboration with Dr. Claudio Faccenna of Universita Roma Tre, Dr. Sergio Zlotnik of UPC-Barcelona Tech, and Dr. David R. Stegman of the University of California, San Diego.