Economists believe RBA will opt for a pause in June
A survey by the Australian Associated Press showed that most economist are holding on the belief that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will give borrowers a breathing room this June and opt for a pause in raising the cash rate as the eurozone debt crisis continues and China's searing economy raises a lot of questions.
All 17 economists polled by AAP this week agreed that the RBA will leave the current rate of 4.5 percent untouched on their next board meeting Tuesday next week, as they issued projections that cash rate will eventually peak up to 5.25 percent by the end of the year.
The RBA has been consistently lifting the interest rates since October of last year in order to attain the average levels it deems fit for a much stable economy in the wake of a perceived recovery gains by the latter part of 2009.
Economist Warren Hogan of the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) believed that it will be different by June and said that the reserve bank would not make a raise until September or December, as he pointed out that economic uncertainties would nudge the RBA to opt for a pause.
He said that most economists are looking at the possibility that rates will eventually go higher with the eurozone crisis dominating the year's economic decisions, as he added that "Europe will not dislodge the China story, so we might have a bit of a soft patch where they can sit on hold, but they'll be raising rates at the end of the year."
Mr Hogan said that at this time only a deteriorating economy could speed up rate hikes and Ray Attrill of 4Cast is in agreement with him that the RBA would hold off any increases until November with economic expectations still in a 'state of influx'.
He said that it has been RBA's long term goal to put the rates on the average levels and the central bank's considering of the eurozone situation was a surprise for him since "it was only the following week that things really intensified in Europe."
Mr Attrill said that RBA's attentions has been caught lately by concerns on China's growth and raising the cash rate in May could have been quite a regret for the central bank.
However, JP Morgan economist Helen Kevans has predicted that a July movement was in the offing yet she is now forecasting that a 0.25 percent hike would happen by August considering the uncertainties spawned by the eurozone crisis.
She said that at this point, it is much safer to assume that "those sovereign concerns could evolve into a real impact on the real economy and that would dent the global growth outlook and of course the Aussie forecasts."
Macquarie economist Brian Redican is expressing doubts though that the Greek situation would have a negative impact on global economies as he believed that more concerns must be focused on the overheating Chinese economy "and the potential impact of the mining super profits tax on mining investment."
He added that recent retail and housing numbers were glaring evidence that the consecutive spikes on cash rate were sinking its teeth on those most affected, the consumers and first home buyers.
Stephen Roberts of Nomura Australia affirmed that the RBA would wait out until the fourth quarter before any upward movement on the cash rate could be seen, stressing that "everything would be based on the assumption that the European crisis doesn't progress to a point where it compromises global economic growth prospects."