El Niño Finally Forms In Pacific Ocean – Japan Meteorological Agency
An El Niño weather pattern had finally emerged in the Pacific Ocean, first in five years, the Japan Meteorological Agency announced on Wednesday. The phenomenon appeared during the summer and will likely continue into winter, the weather bureau added.
The weather pattern first appeared between June and August, JMA said on its Web site, noting surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean continued to remain high into November. It said it cannot ascertain yet if the oceanic warming phenomenon, which causes drought and floods in various parts of the world, will push into spring.
El Niño can trigger drought in Southeast Asia and Australia, while inciting heavy rains in South America. Both extreme weather conditions badly global agricultural markets production such as rice, wheat and sugar. It will also control the incidence of Atlantic hurricanes.
"El Niño conditions appear to have already formed in summer based on the ocean and atmospheric conditions," JMA said. "However, convective activity near the international dateline is slack and the characteristic effects of El Niño on the atmosphere haven't clearly appeared."
In a report on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley said South America had actually started feeling an El Niño-like weather, although global weather scientists have yet to issue an official declaration of the event. Caused by periodic warming of the Pacific, El Niños occur every two to seven years. The last El Niño was from 2009 to 2010. Since then, the Pacific had been in its cooler state, called La Nina. Other scientists said it had been on neutral.
On Dec 2, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said tropical Pacific temperatures have exceeded for a month usual El Niño levels, adding the Southern Oscillation Index has remained at or near thresholds for three months now. The bureau said it seems this El Niño could be a weak event. It gave the event a 70 percent chance that it will be fully developed in the coming months. On Dec 4, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said the chances of the El Niño occurring in the next three months have were now at 65 percent.