Australia’s total number of jobs advertised in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet rose by 1.0 per cent in April to an average of 197,637 advertisements per week, according to the ANZ Job Advertisements Series released today. This follows a 1.3 per cent increase in March.

This is the twelfth consecutive monthly rise in total job advertisements. The number of job advertisements is now 20.5 per cent higher than a year ago, a slight acceleration from last month. The annual rate of growth in job advertising remains well above its long-term trend after being depressed in 2009. Overall, while advertising continues to strengthen, the total number of job ads remains 29.9 per cent below the all-time peak achieved in April 2008. This suggests that while labour demand is strengthening, the labour market is not yet as tight as it was during the height of the first phase of the commodity boom.

In trend terms, growth in job advertisements moderated slightly to 1.1 per cent m/m in April. This follows growth of 1.4 per cent m/m in March. Trend growth in total job ads is still well above the ten-year average rate of 0.7 per cent m/m. In annual terms, trend growth in total job advertisements eased to 20.1 per cent in April after reaching a near six-year high of 36.3 per cent in September 2010.

"Recent trends in job advertising exhibit a distinct resources/two-speed economy nature," ANZ head of Australian economics and property research Ivan Colhoun said.

"Advertising has slowed in NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and the ACT, and broadly strengthened in Queensland (in spite of the floods) and the NT.

"In WA, advertising has slowed a little in recent months from very strong rates of growth in the second half of 2010 and early 2011, but remains above national average growth rates," he said.

Newspaper job ads plunge, online ads up

The number of job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers fell by 3.4 per cent in April. This follows an elevated level of advertising in February and March, especially in the aftermath of the Queensland floods. However, the decline appears more to reflect issues associated with the timing of Easter and ANZAC Day than flood-related variations.

The seasonally-adjusted number of newspaper job ads per week is now broadly in line with December 2010 and January 2011 levels. Ads are now 6.1 per cent lower than a year ago. The trends continue to reflect a loss of market share to on-line advertising.

In trend terms, the number of newspaper job advertisements fell 0.1 per cent in April and fell 3.7 per cent in y/y terms. The search for international and interstate labour in industries where limited local labour is available, may be leading to an acceleration of the structural change to online advertising.

The unusual extended holiday period with Easter and ANZAC day falling on the same weekend, may have led to some overstatement of the weakness in the newspaper data this month.

Meanwhile, the number of internet job advertisements rose 1.2 per cent m/m in April. This is broadly in line with the 1.3 per cent m/m rise recorded in March. Internet job advertisements are 22.2 per cent higher than a year ago. In trend terms, internet job advertisements grew by 1.2 per cent m/m and 21.6 per cent y/y in April, which represents a modest slowing in monthly trend growth in recent months.

Interest rate rise in June

ANZ says Friday’s Quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy contained a strong warning from the RBA that Australian interest rates are likely to rise again in the months ahead.

ANZ has slightly advanced its forecast of the next interest rate hike from July to early June. The Reserve Bank also expects further tightening of the labour market over the medium term and an unemployment rate of 4.25 per cent by the end of 2013 as the mining investment boom progresses.

Mr Colhoun said “There will be considerable interest in any measures announces by the Government in Tuesday’s Budget to accommodate the labour demands of the mining sector and to retrain and reskill workers displaced by the current significant sectoral adjustment in the Australian economy.”