'Fear Index' Likely to Fuel Gold Acquisition and Prices
If there is one trend these days, it is the acquisition of gold bullion by nervous investors and global markets. This "fear index" will likely fuel gold futures to further soar in the coming months.
Gold prices have risen steadily in recent years and have reached record highs earlier this year. In the past few months it has stabilized slightly. Last Friday the spot price for gold closed at $1,743.40 per ounce.
However, it is interesting to note that gold prices, for much of its recorded history, remained flat at around $20 per ounce from the years 1800 to 1933, according to a Financial Advisor magazine article, "Gold: The Fear Index."
The article noted that gold prices only rose when the 1940s Bretton Woods system was demolished and globalisation began. At the time of the Great Depression gold prices hiked to $35 per ounce and stayed there until 1967. Gold then started its first phase of growth. For much of the 1970s, gold prices soared with the era of modern finance, high inflation rates and unfamiliar open market deregulation.
Then came the 1980s and 1990s which was a time of more stable global economic growth within an environment of contained inflation. During these years, gold prices ultimately fell down.
For the 2000 decade, gold prices yet again soared, triggered first by the dot-com bubble crash, then the real estate bubble, and the economy suffered a downturn in 2008 and 2009.
"What is the cause for such a trend? For one, the spikes in gold prices have always coincided with increased global economic uncertainty and turmoil. Traditionally, gold has shared the position of safe haven along with the U.S. dollar, the global reserve currency. Thus, in the past, whenever global economic uncertainty increased, both gold and the U.S. dollar increased in value. But gold prices in the past did not increase as much partly because of the alternative investment in U.S. dollars," the article said.
Investing in gold is not a foolproof strategy for those wanting to earn more in the long term as it does not pay any income such as dividends paid by equities or interest paid by bonds. What's more, its price is determined purely on speculation.
It is wise that investors should allocate a small portion of their portfolio assets to gold and the majority of assets should still be invested in stocks and bonds.
"Gold is a mirror. Its price gauges global economic fear. Fear of uncertainty, fear of losses and fear of poverty. As long as this fear remains in this world, the new gold standard will continue to reflect the fear standard. The index of fear!"
However, with the current global fiscal meltdown, it is possible that gold futures will continue to rise. Only when demand decreases will global gold prices will fall. And that might still take a relatively few years to come.