Federal Labor Eases Down Spectre of Total Defeat, Says Newspoll
Labor is fighting back, according to the latest Newspoll analysis, and is at best would give a slim chance for Prime Minister Julia Gillard to keep her job in the aftermath of the scheduled federal election in late 2013.
From the popularity surveys that were conducted by Newspoll from July through September, the Labor-led government has improved its primary vote standing by three full points, which The Australian said on Friday presently sits at 33 per cent.
The Coalition, on the other hand, lost two points of support from voters with the same three-month period, with the Tony Abbott-led alliance of the Liberals and National now merely holding a 45 per cent primary vote.
Ms Gillard's party has registered impressive climbs on all states and territories, save for Western Australia, most notable of which is Labor's gains in Queensland, where Newspoll said the ruling party now commands 30 per cent of support.
The renewed political traction, however, has yet to erase the strong possibility that Labor will lose the national contest next year as Newspoll projected that swings in Labor seats in the Sunshine State and the New South Wales would surely provide Mr Abbott's team enough muscle to take the federal government.
In fact, the lift on its poll numbers will not necessarily assure Labor that it will retain national power next year, political analyst Paul Williams told ABC in an interview on Friday.
What the new numbers have indicated is Labor will not be totally vanquished, Mr Williams said, noting too that "it's still obviously a really long way for Labor to go."
"On these figures (Julia) Gillard might get back on a hung parliament at best - at very, very best," he added, inadvertently pointing to the close results that came out of the 2010 federal election.
Back then, Ms Gillard had to forge backdoor deals with independent MPs to roll over on the job that he inherited from former Labor leader Kevin Rudd.
She could avert doing that again, analysts said, if in the months ahead she could improve on the gender bias that also afflicts Mr Abbott.
Both leaders, Newspoll said, appear to attract equal amount of support and rejection from the gender block that they belong to. Aussie females rally towards the prime minister while male voters tend to approve more of the opposition leader, the survey analysis said.
In Mr Abbott's case, the trend could be attributed to recent developments, in which he ended up being portrayed as a person having difficulties with female figures, especially those occupying positions of authority.
But in an article she wrote and published by The Daily Telegraph on Friday, Margie Abbott, wife to Mr Abbott, dismissed "others claim that the man I love and the father my children adore has some agenda against women."
"I know these distortions are not true and have decided to speak up in response to these personal and groundless attacks," Mrs Abbott said in her piece, likely alluding to Labor criticisms that the Coalition leader was not comfortable interacting equally with women of stature and power.
Negative impressions of Mr Abbott's 'relationship' with women further heightened when an essay was recently published, containing recollections of the Liberal leader's rough ways with female student leaders while in university.
In one account, a victorious woman candidate revealed how she was intimidated by the young Mr Abbott, with the only reason she could summon for the incident is the latter's defeat during the University of Sydney college council election.