That's why the continuing outflow of money from Greece's banks is becoming more of a worry.

It's not a run as we all know it with anxious customers queuing outside bank branches for hours, but it's a run nevertheless, much of it by the click of a computer mouse.

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Some estimates suggest that several billion euros or more may have been withdrawn in the last few months and sent offshore.

Moody's said this outflow, if it continues, is "a key" credit negative for Greek banks, and such outflows would cause a severe cash shortage if they rapidly increased beyond 35% of deposits."

Writing in the firm's Weekly Credit Outlook, senior analyst Nondas Nicolaides said the credit rating agency estimated outflows had totalled around 8% of deposits since the beginning of 2011, based on discussions with rated Greek banks and public information.

Nicolaides said the potential for further deposit outflows posed "a major liquidity risk for banks" and added Greek banks will likely find it increasingly challenging to decrease their dependence on repo funding from the European Central Bank.

"An acceleration of deposit outflows is one of the key risks for Greek banks and something that is beyond the control of either local or European authorities," Mr Nicolaides said.

"A sustained decline of deposits by more than 35%--roughly equal to the consolidated banking system's liquid assets and ECB funding availability--within a short period of time, would cause a severe shortage of cash among banks," he wrote.

Nicolaides said that while deposits have been on the decline since late 2009, outflows picked up pace over the past two months, as political tensions and uncertainty surrounding International Monetary Fund and European funding spurred depositors to shift their money elsewhere.

More than half of the decline in deposits so far this year is likely the result of a drawdown on holdings by individuals and companies to compensate for lower incomes, he said.

He added that the growing bank liquidity risk was aggravated by volatile government deposits, which accounted for 6.7% of total deposits in April 2011 and are used to repay maturing government securities.

The European Central Bank has been keeping Greek banks alive on a day-to-day basis, providing the short term money through repo transactions. The banks would be able to remain solvent if these repos were to continue through a period of default (the ECB would allow that, if it was certain of being repaid, though).

Moody's said "ECB funding has increased significantly since January 2010, as capital markets and the inter-bank market are still closed to Greek banks.

"The latest available data show that at the end of April 2011, overall ECB funding stood at €87 billion, comprising more than 21% of the banks' total liabilities, compared to 59.4% for deposits.

"With the decline in customer deposits, we expect Greek banks to find it increasingly challenging to reduce their ECB funding dependence, which is their primary objective based on their funding plans committed to the Central Bank of Greece.

"The potential for further deposit outflows constitutes a major liquidity risk for banks as depositor sentiment is affected by negative political developments and Greece's capability for timely repayment of its debt obligations.

"With the decline in customer deposits, we expect Greek banks to find it increasingly challenging to reduce their ECB funding dependence, which is their primary objective based on their funding plans committed to the Central Bank of Greece," Mr Nicolaides wrote.

And in May the outflow seems to have worsened, if the ECB lending figures are any guide.

Lending jumped by 12.3% to EUR97.5 billion at the end of May from EUR87 billion in April.

The May figures reverse a four-month trend of gradually reduced borrowing that followed a peak at the end of 2010.

ECB loans to Greek banks nearly doubled last year to EUR97.67 billion at the end of December from EUR49.7 billion at the start of January.

Copyright Australasian Investment Review.
AIR publishes a weekly magazine. Subscriptions are free at www.aireview.com.au

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