Housing Market 'Swan Dive' Nears
Economist Steve Keen has predicted that a housing market price 'swan dive' is about six months away.
Speaking with Australian BrokerNews, Keen said a property bubble burst is unlike a stockmarket crash.
"In a stock market crash, you can lose 22% in one day, but in the property market what happens is that people who don't get the reservation price they have got, hold the property on the market and don't sell so you get an expansion in the unsold stock," he said.
However, Keen said that sellers will eventually be forced to drop their price expectations.
"At some point the sellers who are holding off on actually reducing their price, either are forced to reduce their price by personal circumstances, or they think that if they don't reduce their price they are not going to sell, so they take it on the chin and reduce the price," he said.
The result wiil be a property price 'swan dive' in just six months, according to Keen.
"We are at that stage where you get the bounce around, where prices can sort of appear to go sideways with a slight downward trend for about a year or so, and then they'll start precipitously falling."
"I think we are probably about six months from the swan dive here, but it is certainly on it's way."
To see Keen's full argument, and a response from LJ Hooker's Peter Bromley and Mortgage Choice broker Mark Bambagiotti, see The Big Story: Steve Keen and the coming 'swan dive'