IG Markets Australian Market Wrap
Good afternoon,
In Asia, regional markets are mostly higher this Thursday following a solid set of leads from the US. Bargain hunting in Japan has lifted stocks, with the Nikkei 225 1% firmer. Elsewhere, The Hang Seng and Kospi are up 0.8% and 0.9% respectively while the Shanghai Composite is 0.4% stronger.
In Australia, the ASX 200 just finished the session in positive territory, adding 0.1% to close at 4479. It spent most of the session oscillating either side of the flat line. On the downside, financials and materials detracted the bulk of the points, while the energy, industrials, and consumer discretionary sectors were the biggest percentage gainers.
The local earnings season continued in earnest today, with the theme of mixed results and cautionary outlooks continuing. Nonetheless, the overall market continues to tread water, with the consensus being that this will continue for some time yet. Volumes continue to be very light, despite the earnings season. Nobody seems to have the confidence to make a decisive move, either long or short.
The global macro backdrop remains clouded at best, with investors still wondering whether or not to be concerned about the possibility of a second recession, especially in the US or to look at the current weakness as a buying opportunity. Expectations are for equity markets to remain fairly quiet, at least until after the US Labour Day holiday on September 6, which typically heralds the return of many professionals from summer holidays and hence more normal trading volumes.
Traders and professionals are all calling for a strong end to the year. With everyone talking about it, it's likely to be a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
For the second straight session, the market basically finished flat. On the upside, the industrials sector added significant points, rising 0.8%. Brambles was the standout, adding 4% after it announced a pretty good FY10 result considering the well-flagged drag on CHEP sales from the global economic slowdown. Profit was down just 1% to US$448.8 million, above average market forecasts of US$434.5 million. Sales growth came in at 3%, including 2H growth of 6%, with sales up across all its regions except CHEP Americas, where in the US, it fell 5%. However, annualised net new wins of US$18 million in CHEP US, since the commencement of the pallet improvement program in October, could build confidence its turnaround is on track.
Elsewhere, Boral, Macquarie Airports and Qantas were all up between 1.4% and 2.5%.
The energy sector bucked a significant fall in the oil price overnight to post gains of 0.7%. Caltex led the group north, adding 4.3% while Oil Search, Whitehaven Coal and Origin Energy were all up more than 1.2%.
The consumer discretionary sector had another good session, adding 0.6% with the likes of Crown, Billabong International, JB HiFi and Fairfax all firmer between 0.7% and 2.8%. David Jones saw some profit taking after yesterday's outperforming, retreating 0.6% despite an upgrade from Credit Suisse.
The broker upped David Jones to neutral from underperform, with a price target of $5.25, up from $4.50. Credit Suisse noted the improving sales trend in June and July and said a strengthening finish to the year in July should have seen a small positive contribution to profit from the 14th week. The broker expects growth in line with the broader retail environment and said consumer spending is likely to be a little stronger than David Jones' flat sales outlook' for 1H11, resulting in performance at the upper end of guidance. Credit Suisse has removed the discount to valuation in its target price, which was set following the resignation of CEO Mark McInnes. In a separate note from Citigroup, it cut David Jones to hold from buy and said that while it maintains a positive earnings outlook, the PE discount has disappeared.
On the downside, the financial sector was the biggest drag, losing 0.4% despite constructive US leads. AMP was the worst performer, down 4.3% after reporting a result that missed market expectations. Elsewhere, the three of the big four banks succumbed to selling pressure, losing between 0.5% and 0.6%. NAB managed to buck the trend, adding 0.4%. QBE Insurance Group was the biggest riser, gaining 1.1% after reporting a strong FY result.
QBE Insurance forecast better margins in the 2H but slightly lower premium revenue than it booked in the 1H. Australia's biggest insurance company expects to record a FY insurance margin of 16% - 18% after recording a 15.7% margin in the 1H. FY gross written premium revenue is expected to grow 19% to US$13.40 billion after rising 20% to US$6.86 billion in the 1H. The insurance giant notes that competition in the US insurance market is expected to remain strong, with European markets still soft. However, QBE believes there are encouraging signs European markets are at the bottom of the cycle. Large catastrophe claims hit the Australian business in the 1H but QBE said its combined FY operating ratio is expected to improve.