Across Asia, regional markets were mostly lower following flat US leads where trading volumes were very light due to the Columbus Day holiday. The Kospi and Nikkei 225 are the weakest performers, down 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. The Hang Seng is down 0.3% and the Shanghai Composite is flat on the session.

In Australia, the ASX 200 closed the session 1.7% weaker at 4618.2, only 0.8pts off its session low. Losses for the day were heavier than anticipated. Investors seemed happy to take money off the table on a day where there was no obvious catalyst to move higher. Overnight stabilisation in the US dollar and a resulting unwind in commodity prices saw the materials sector as the day's worst performer.

We saw a stronger-than-expected dose of profit taking following a complete lack of overnight leads. It seems more participants are beginning to subscribe to the thought that the US dollar is already pricing in quantitative easing and may in fact be closer to a bottom. There could be a big case of 'sell the rumour, by the fact'.

With US dollar short positions having increased by approximately $15 billion since the last FOMC statement, there's the potential for a massive short squeeze should the above scenario play out. This would be 'risk' negative with equities, commodities and risk currencies likely to come under pressure.

Looking ahead to the remainder of October, it seems investors are just hoping to get through the Q3 earnings season with no nasty surprises. Their real focus appears to be the first week in November where the next FOMC statement is due and mid-term US elections are to be held.

In foreign exchange news, a piece of market commentary from NAB said it believes the AUD/USD remains on track for parity by the year end. To support its case, it notes the RBA looks likely to hike rates by then, China's growth rate has re-accelerated, and the US Federal Reserve looks likely to restart quantitative easing. The bank added that when the US Federal Reserve first implemented quantitative easing in March 2009, the US Dollar index dived by almost 8% before retracing half this decline and then plunging to fresh lows. The bank continued, saying this time, the US Dollar index has already fallen almost 8% on quantitative easing expectations. However, a further fall in the USD on the Fed announcing QE in November is likely, although the size of QE will be important to the USD's prospects.

In a separate note from Credit Suisse, it said Australian financial markets have placed 50/50 bets on a RBA rate hike at the November policy meeting. CS believes the lack of certainty in markets likely reflects the RBA's surprise decision in October to hold rates steady at 4.50%. Despite recent hawkish rhetoric from the central bank, markets only expect two 25 bps rate hikes over the next two years.

Turning our attention to the equity market and it was a fairly bleak day, with all sectors finishing firmly in the red. The materials sector was the biggest drag, declining 2.2%, with recent flyer Fortescue falling the most, down 4% despite a broker upgrade.

Macquarie upgraded the iron ore miner to neutral, and its price target to $6.75 from $5.72. Macquarie views Fortescue's restructure of senior debt as a potential "game changer"; it estimates its weighted average cost of capital has fallen to 9.5% from 10.5%, and its base case DCF valuation has risen to $6.27/share from $5.72/share. The broker identifies potential NPV upside of $1.00/share, relating to potential FY11 iron ore price spike and its Solomon phase 2 project. Macquarie factored in 50% of these upsides, to arrive at its new valuation and $6.75/share price target.

Elsewhere, Newcrest Mining, Rio Tinto, Amcor and BHP were all weaker by more than 1.7%.

According to a major market participant, the USD is the real driver of base metals at the moment, so it's worth keeping an eye on the EUR/USD "as this should provide some price direction for base metals". The source said the prospect of further US quantitative easing continues to weigh on the USD vs the euro, which in turn supports the base metals complex. Separately, in a comment from Triland Metals, it noted that copper broadly held near Friday's high levels after the bad US jobless figures. This led to market speculation of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, which in turn drove the market higher. Triland believes this could go on for a little while, but pondered that maybe the market could also realise that news from the US is actually bad and interpret figures the other way around.

The industrial and financial sectors also detracted significant points, falling 1.8% and 1.6% respectively. Axa was the biggest decliner, losing 2.7% while the big four banks were all weaker between 1.3% and 2.2%. Boral, Brambles and Toll Holdings were the worst performing names in the industrials space, all down more than 2.5%.

The consumer discretionary sector was the best relative performer, only losing 1%.