Indian Rupee Hits Psychological Low of 60 Versus U.S.$; Sluggish Economic Forecast
Resident Indians Will Have to Pay More for Food, Travel, and Studying Abroad on the Heels of a Devalued Rupee
With a depreciating Indian rupee hitting a psychological low of Rs.60/$1, Indians are concerned about their buying power, particularly when traveling overseas.
Resident Indians are worried that a decline in Rupee's value could spur an interest rate hike, which would translate into higher interests on car loans and loans for homes - the type of borrowing most middle class Indians take out. It will also mean higher EMIs or monthly installments for products like laptops and cell phones sold in India. This would dampen spending by young Indians and fresh graduates exposed to a broad choice of products from the iPhone to Microsoft Xbox gaming devices.
A weaker dollar may also cause a decline in foreign investment, a prime motivator of the Indian economy, as consumer spending begins to dwindle. This would also decrease the inflow of capital, depriving the economy of much needed foreign currencies.
For the most part, paychecks for ordinary Indians have not been adjusted despite sweltering inflation rates. With food, prices at all time highs, the average Indian struggles to feed his family with staples like rice and potatoes. Traditionally, Indian culture promotes vegetarianism but at current prices, even vegetables are difficult to afford. The poor and the working class are taking the brunt of the harsh realities of the Indian economy.
Looking at the statistics, global products and services are tagged at 35% in line with India's current inflation. Further depreciation of the rupee would make it virtually impossible to afford foreign goods. According to economic analysts, Nomura, a 10% decline in the rupee value would mean another 60-80 basis point increase in overall inflation.
In the aftermath of the 2008 recession, India came out on top after a credit crisis emanating from poor sales in the U.S. housing industry led to a global economic downturn. Despite this, both China and India managed to maintain economic growth, close to 9%. However, that is not the same story now.
The current economic scenario presents India with a figure of 5% economic growth in 2012 with very little signs of improvement. With gold, the rupee depreciating, and the dollar gaining strength, economists worry that a 'summersault' effect favoring the lean U.S. economy under the Obama Administration will take place.
Mecklai Financial's Jamal Mecklai told the local news channel NDTV, "We are close to a crisis situation. Nothing anybody does is materially going to control the fall... with each passing day, nervousness is increasing."