iQ ASX Weekly forecast for week ending 22nd November 2013
The weekly closed last week on an uptrend. The market has maintained the 5400 level for the last three weeks. It appeared last week that a correction and fall was forming however moves on the SP500 from key levels at 1755 saw record highs in the US enough to push the ASX back to an uptrend by the close. The short term daily closed Friday neutral with the market closing right on the daily stop at 5409. We continue to expect weakness with volumes low at highs and monthly resistance holding rallies. The weekly upside target is 2 points lower than last week at 5426. The weekly upside target has been falling for the past 4 weeks as markets have failed to breakout. A break of 5444 next week will lead to a break higher however daily indicators suggest a retest of last weeks lows is highly likely.
The daily short term shows a stop for Monday at 5395 with the weekly stop at 5380 and monthly stop at 5373. We predicted an increase in volume and volatility last week and we continue to see new trading opportunities this week.
The market continues to be range bound in the primary 5387 -5444 range and a break outside these ranges will lead to the next direction for the market. Currency markets are consolidating with supports under pressure and fresh lows expected. We remain neutral with the market showing signs of weakness. We continue to expect new short positions. Refer to daily reports for Traders notes and updates.
Bulls lost control early in the week for the first time in the past three weeks. Thursday reversal saw the weekly stop tested and Friday the market managed to regain the uptrend. Upside resistance can be seen to 5426 and the November monthly congestion between 5417 and 5444 continues to hold any rallies. The weekly stop at 5380 confirms this level as a key pivot for the market. A break of 5444 will see the market break all medium and long term resistance and will lead to a break out. A close above 5380 at the end of the week will maintain the uptrend.