Japan to Veer More into Use of LNG, Oil and Coal
As Japan struggles to rise above the March 2011 tsunami and Fukushima nuclear disasters, the country is expected to turn to other fuels, notably gas in the form of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil and coal to fill the nuclear gap.
This as Japanese utility Okinawa Electric Power Co. said on Friday it will increase its thermal coal imports for power generation to 1,058,000 tonnes in October-March from 955,000 tonnes in the same period a year ago.
Reuters quoted company officials saying it will acquire 197,000 kilolitres of fuel oil in October-March compared with 200,000 kilolitres a year earlier. The utility serves the southwestern island of Okinawa, but does not import liquefied natural gas for power generation.
Meanwhile, Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan has said Japan would need to promote the role of renewables in the country's energy mix, which still relies heavily on nuclear.
According to the "Japan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011" from Business Monitor International, the country will account for 13.61 per cent of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 26.07mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 is forecast to grow to around 30.22mn b/d by 2015. In 2010, the Asia Pacific region imported an average 18.15mn b/d. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea.
While in terms of natural gas, in 2010 the Asia Pacific region consumed around 513.3bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 664.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of 406.0bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 112.3bcm to 111.8bcm. Japan's share of gas consumption is put at 16.85 per cent in 2015.
Business Monitor International forecasts that Japan will see a reduction in oil consumption between 2011 and 2020 by 1.8 per cent, with demand slipping steadily to the end of the period and the country using 4.04mn b/d by 2020. Gas consumption will rise from 107bcm in 2011 to 114bcm by 2020.
Majority of Japan's gas will be imported in the form of LNG.
Business Monitor International sees Japan's growth going negative, reflective of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Japanese real GDP is to decline by 0.7% in 2011, with average annual growth foreseen at 1.2 per cent in 2011-2015. There is little domestic upstream activity, with local state and private firms concentrating on international exploration efforts. The outlook for domestic oil and gas production therefore remains poor. Oil consumption is forecast to fall between 2011 and 2015, implying demand of 4.11mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The country should be consuming some 112bcm of gas by 2015, most of which will be imported in the form of LNG.