Job advertisements in both print and the internet across Australia continued its decline in October, easing 0.7 percent month-on-month and 1.8 percent, y-o-y, according to the latest ANZ survey.

Highlights

  • Job advertisements on the internet and in newspapers decreased by 0.7% in October, the sixth fall in seven months. Annual growth in total job advertisements slowed to 1.8% y/y.
  • Newspaper job ads were 2.7% lower in October, while internet job advertising decreased by 0.6% m/m. Newspaper advertising is now 16.7% lower than a year ago, while internet advertising is 2.8% higher over the same period, in part reflecting the continuing trend towards advertising online.
  • In trend terms, total job ads fell by 0.6% m/m in October with the annual growth rate slowing to 1.5% y/y. Job advertising began slowing in January 2011 and has been negative since April.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics and Property Research Ivan Colhoun said:

  • The number of job advertisements continued to moderately decline in October falling 0.7% m/m.
  • The weakness in both internet and newspaper advertising suggests below trend growth in employment and a gradual rise in the unemployment rate over coming months. However, the decline in job advertising to date is very moderate, more like the slowing in 1996-97 than the collapse in advertising witnessed during the GFC in 2008-09.
  • Trends in job advertising are again beginning to reflect the emergence of a more noticeable geographic split to Australian economic growth. The trend in job advertising remains positive for Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland (the states with the greatest exposure to mining). At the same time, advertising is continuing to slow in the more populous states of NSW and Victoria.
  • ANZ forecasts the unemployment rate to rise to 5.5% by mid-2012. This forecast is consistent with employment growth of less than 5,000 jobs per month. However, with the mining investment boom building through 2012 and with the subsequent flow on effects on the Australian economy, ANZ does not foresee a more substantial increase in the unemployment rate.
  • In line with a rising unemployment rate, wages and underlying inflation pressures are likely to have begun moderating. As such ANZ believes there is continued scope to ease interest rates towards a 'neutral' stance from the 'more neutral' stance at present. ANZ expects a further 25bp cut in the cash rate in February 2012.
  • The ABS publishes October labour force data on Thursday. ANZ expects total employment to have fallen by 5,000 and the unemployment rate to have risen to 5.3%.

Total job advertisements

The ANZ Job Advertisements Series shows the total number of jobs advertised in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet fell 0.7% in October to an average of 181,005 advertisements per week (seasonally adjusted). Job advertising is now 1.8% higher than a year earlier. The annual pace of growth recently peaked at 42.5% in January 2011. As an indicator for employment growth, job advertising suggests the flat trend growth in employment may continue in coming months.

In trend terms, total job advertisements declined by 0.6% m/m in October, recording their seventh consecutive monthly decline. Annual trend growth continued to decelerate to 1.5% and this series is now running well below its long-term average.

Newspaper job advertisements

The number of job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers fell 2.7% in October. Newspaper job advertisements are now 16.7% lower than a year ago, in part reflecting the continuing shift to internet advertising.

In trend terms, the number of newspaper job advertisements fell by 1.2% m/m in October and is now 15.8% lower than this time last year.

In October, newspaper job advertisements fell across all states and territories with the exception of Queensland and Tasmania. Queensland newspaper job advertising (+4.4% m/m) is now 5.4% higher than a year ago with a monthly trend growth rate of 1.4%. Tasmanian job advertisements (+14.1% m/m), while rebounding in October are 24.2% lower than a year ago. There was weakness in newspaper job advertising across the other states with New South Wales (-1.7% m/m), Victoria (-5.6% m/m), South Australia (-3.0% m/m), Western Australia (-6.2% m/m), the ACT (-8.1% m/m) and the Northern Territory (-2.9% m/m) all declining.

Internet job advertisements

The number of internet job advertisements fell 0.6% in October. Internet advertising is now 6.8% lower than the recent peak in March this year. While remaining 2.8% higher than a year ago, this is the slowest pace of annual growth since February 2010 (see Table 4).

In trend terms, internet job advertisements fell 0.5% m/m, recording the seventh consecutive monthly decline. Annual trend growth has now slowed to 2.4% and is sitting well below its long-term average.