The ANZ Job Advertisements Series, which shows the total number of jobs advertised in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet, rose by 1.2 per cent in February to an average of 193,555 advertisements per week. This follows a 3.0 per cent increase in January, originally reported as a 2.4 per cent rise.

This is the 10th consecutive monthly rise in total job advertisements. The number of job advertisements is now 19.3 per cent higher than a year ago. This is down on the January 2011 annual growth rate of 42.6 per cent largely due to the large rise in job advertising between January and February 2010. While advertising continues to strengthen, the total number of job ads remains 31.3 per cent below the all-time peak achieved in April 2008. Coupled with a slightly higher unemployment rate, this suggests the labour market is not as tight as it was three years ago.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics and Property Research Ivan Colhoun said the further rise in job advertising suggests the Australian economy continues to make forward progress in spite of somewhat mixed performance across a number of sectors.

“This diverse performance makes indicators, such as employment and job advertising, even more important to monitor given the mixed messages of indicators such as retail sales and mining investment,” he said.

In trend terms, growth in job advertisements again moderated in February to 1.4 per cent MoM. This follows growth of 1.7 per cent MoM in January. Trend growth in total job ads is still well above the ten-year average rate of 0.6 per cent MoM. In annual terms, trend growth in total job advertisements has eased to 25.3 per cent in February after reaching a five and a half year high of 36.3 per cent in September 2010.

ANZ estimates that the effect of the Queensland floods reduced national job advertisements by around three quarters of a percentage point in January. However, there is evidence of a significant rebound in February, over and above the suppressing effect evident in January.

Newspaper job advertisements

The number of job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers rose by 4.4 per cent in February. This follows falls of 0.3 per cent in January and of 4.4 per cent in December. Newspaper job ads are now 3.7 per cent lower than a year ago. The rebound in newspaper job advertisements was largely due to increased advertising in Queensland, where a 30.5 per cent MoM rise was recorded.

In trend terms, the number of newspaper job advertisements fell 0.2 per cent in February, and 5.4 per cent in YoY terms. The trend measure of newspaper job advertisements has now been declining for ten consecutive months, though much of this likely reflects the continued migration of job advertising on-line.

In February, newspaper job advertisements fell 5.4 per cent MoM in the Northern Territory, 1.5 per cent in Western Australia, 2.2 per cent in South Australia and 2.5 per cent in Tasmania. Newspaper job ads rose 6.5 per cent MoM in NSW, 1.9 per cent in Victoria, 12.9 in the ACT and 30.5 in Queensland. The rise in Queensland likely represents both a catch up to unfulfilled advertising in January but also increased labour demand due to clean up, repair and the commencement of rebuilding efforts from the floods in December and January.

Mr Colhoun said the most surprising outcome in this month’s release was the 30.5 per cent rise in newspaper job advertising in Queensland in February.

“Last month, we noted a significant drop in Queensland newspaper advertising in the week ending the 16th of January.

“While part of the large rise in February likely reflects a catch up from deferred January advertising, the rise is significant enough to raise the possibility that there has been an increase in labour demand over and above the pre-existing trend due to activities associated with clean up and repairs after the recent floods.

“March data will provide a clearer indication as to the extent of this increase in demand,” he said.
ANZ forecasts a 28,000 increase in employment in February and an unchanged 5 per cent unemployment rate. Market expectations are for a 20,000 increase in employment and also for an unchanged unemployment rate.

“The RBA will interpret an unchanged unemployment rate as reflecting an economy growing at around a trend rate of growth. This will leave the Bank comfortably on hold in the near term pending any reacceleration in consumer spending, further tightening in the labour market or a marked change in the Bank’s inflation forecast. ANZ continues to expect the next move in interest rates to be an increase, but not until the third quarter of 2011,” Mr Colhoun said.

Internet job advertisements

The number of internet job advertisements rose by 1.0 per cent in February, after a rise of 3.1 per cent in January. Internet job advertisements are now 20.8 per cent higher than a year ago. In trend terms, internet job advertisements grew by 1.5 per cent MoM and 27.4 per cent YoY in February. These trends are consistent with ongoing healthy employment growth in the Australian economy.