La Nina is Gone, But the Rains May Still Persist
After wreaking havoc in Australia, La Nina is now gone.
The Bureau of Meteorology has announced on its site that "the demise of the La Niña does not mean the risk of wet conditions (or tropical cyclones) over Australia has ended. While sea surface temperatures around the continent remain warmer than normal and the tropical wet season is active, there remains a risk of above average rainfall over Australia."
Although the key indicators show that the inclement La Nina may have receded, it may not be time to celebrate, yet.
Australia has witnessed two consecutive La Nina conditions from 2010-2012, leading to torrential rain and flooding. These two years have been the wettest recorded ones in Australia's history. Swelling rivers and floods have caused thousands of people to evacuate their homes, with a few deaths been reported as well.
La Nina is an ocean-atmosphere phenomenon and occurs when the sea temperatures become cooler than usual. In Australia, when La Nina was at its peak in January this year, sea surface temperatures had dipped below normal. This caused the excessive rainfall and flooding that was seen over most regions in northern and eastern Australia.
Unfortunately, the possibility of tropical cyclones and more heavy rain cannot be ruled out yet. For the April to June forecast, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology says that "large parts of eastern Australia more likely to have a wetter season while southeast SA, western and central Victoria, and Tasmania more likely to have a drier season." The site also adds that there is a 60% chance that southeastern Queensland and the northeastern half of NSW would receive above median rainfall. However, if you are in the far northeast area of NSW or in the southeast of Queensland, there is a 75% chance that you'll see above median rainfall.
La Nina may have gone, but the rains probably have not.