Lift in November retail data an 'anomaly'
Retailers will be pleased to see an increase in retail figures in November, but this will not be enough to save the year, according to the Australian National Retailers Association (ANRA).
The Australian Bureau of Statistics retail data released today showed a 0.3 per cent increase in retail figures, up on the revised October drop of 0.8 per cent.
"While a 0.3 per cent uptick is welcomed, and certainly unexpected considering the economic climate, retailers are well aware that this jump looks like an anomaly, created by the woefully low figures in October," ANRA chief executive Margy Osmond said.
"The two lowest year-on-year increases since 2005 were recorded in 2010, illustrating the challenging year retail faced. A 'normal' growth year for nominal retail trade is around 6 per cent, but May 2010 recorded a 1 per cent increase, while the November 12 month increase was only 1.3 per cent.
Mrs Osmond said the November increase reflects retailers bringing forward their Christmas discounting and strong jobs numbers during the month balancing out the impact of the November interest rate increase.
"Massive discounting and a bounce off the October drop must account for much of this increase. It is far too early to suggest that retail can sustain growth with continued interest rate rises and we would put the Reserve Bank on notice not to read too much into these numbers," she said.
Department stores were one of the big winners in November, following two months of negative figures.
"The November total spend was about the same as June, indicating very little growth since then. There are clearly still challenging times in retail.
Retailer's hopes for a recovery in 2011 may be dashed with ANRA survey of 1000 Australians showing more than a third of them (36 per cent) intend to cut spending this year, while 53 per cent planned to keep their shopping about the same as 2010 levels.
"Consumers have been telling us all year that they feel secure, confidence and jobs are high, but they are not intending to spend that cash, choosing instead to save it. It seems that trend is becoming entrenched and is unlikely to change at least in the short term," Mrs Osmond said.