Low Job Ads Signal Soaring Unemployment in Months Ahead
Ahead of the official employment data release this week, it appears that the Australian economy may be in for rough sailing in the months and quarters ahead as a new survey indicated that job openings have declined during the past two months.
According to the new job advertisements survey conducted by the Australia New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), both online and traditional publication announcement of job openings dipped by 0.6 percent in the month of August.
The retreat, the ANZ said on Monday, marked the second consecutive month that the numbers slowed down and the fourth time in the past five months, paving the way for a sluggish movement of national job availability since January this year.
Job ads growth only registered 6.1 percent in the past eight months leading to August, according to the new ANZ survey.
Despite the plunging numbers, ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan described the trend as still moderating though he noted that there was "a cyclic slowdown in 2011, consistent with other indicators of both economic activity and labour demand."
"This suggests a soft patch for Australian economic growth associated with stagnant employment conditions rather than a sharp slowdown that will drive a rapid rise in unemployment," Hogan was quoted by The Australian Associated Press (AAP) as saying in the report.
As of last month, job ads fell by 0.5 percent but the figures were still 7.3 percent better when compared to August advertisements posted last year.
Yet the new study also showed that newspaper job ads is hardest hit for the last six months as August's receding numbers of three percent only worsened the 12-month cycle data to a troubling 15.6 percent decline.
Judging on the latest figures, Hogan said that companies are expected to decelerate their hiring activities for the months to come, which he said could be the norm for the remaining parts of the year.
"ANZ has recently reviewed its employment forecasts and expect the unemployment rate to continue to drift up to around 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent over the next 12 months," Hogan told AAP.
As the country gears up for the official August job data that the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will issue on Thursday, the ANZ study is projecting that job availability will rise by as much as 18,000 in the month.
"The unemployment rate is expected to ease slightly to five per cent in August, before heading up to 5.25 per cent by the end of 2011 and 5.5 per cent by mid 2012," the ANZ survey said.
Hogan added though that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will not be prompted to implement a cut back on the cash rate this September as he argued that notwithstanding the increasing jobless rate, encouraging inflation, construction and mining numbers are expected to ease down on jarring unemployment impacts.