More Work Created in January but Economists Remain Cautious
Australia's jobless rate improved a bit last month, supporting the country's steady economic gains but drawing mixed reactions from economists.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported on Thursday that more Aussies joined the workforce in January, adding 46,300 workers to the total of 11.464 employed as of the first month of 2011.
From the 5.2 percent unemployment rate, unrevised, seen in December last year, the ABS said the level settled down to 5.1 percent in January, the bet showing so far of the crucial economic indicator over the past six months.
At the same time, the participation rate also soared in the month as more and more Australians have been hunting for work, with about the same number already settling on their new-found jobs, the new ABS survey said.
Analysts view the pick up as a growth indicator though some noted that the jump was relatively weak in light of the rate reductions imposed by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in November and December.
The Australian economy is quite healthy basing on the new jobless rate, according to CMC Markets chief market strategist Michael McCarthy, adding that "the Australian economy is expanding at a rate that was unexpected."
"That the unemployment rate dropped to 5.1 with an expansion in the participation rate says good things about the economy," McCarthy told the Australian Associated Press (AAP).
However, it also meant that no further rates would be imposed by the RBA in the immediate months ahead with most employers clearly picking on the confidence to re-start their hiring procedures, McCarthy added.
But Brian Redican of Macquarie is of the impression that the January jobless rate merely flashed the adjustments that the job market has implemented in the past two months but not necessarily influenced by RBA's policy decisions in the same period.
"It's a correction from the previous two months ... and it would be far too early to see the impact of those rate cuts on activity," Redican told AAP.
Yet the current numbers are signalling some form of rebound for the job market, according to St George economist Janu Chan, cautioning though that "the overall trend of job growth is still quite weak which does suggest that there is still caution amongst firms."
"The unemployment rate is down from 5.3 per cent that we saw in September but that mainly reflects a decline in the participation rate," Chan noted.
ICAP senior economist Adam Carr agreed that to be excited on the January jobless rate would amount to a misplaced enthusiasm as growth seen in the month was actually slow, which "indicates a significant amount of caution among employers given the strength in private demand."
While all indicators are so far stable, Redican said that pressures would rise in the coming months as he pointed to the recent news of big companies' plans to scale back the number of their employees despite realising profits.
So the pressure exists for unemployment to spike in the first half of 2012, Redican said, and "with the Aussie dollar getting stronger, that pressure is not going to be relieved."