NAB forecasts 4.75% cash rate next month
National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX:NAB) said on Wednesday it expects the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift official cash rate from 4.5 to 4.75 per cent in October, rather than early next year.
"We are bringing forward the timing of the next 25 basis point rate rise from early 2011 to the central bank's next board meeting on October 5," NAB said in a statement.
"Recent comments from the RBA look designed to prepare financial markets for a near-term rise in the cash rate," said NAB Group chief economist Alan Oster.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens gave a speech Monday in rural Victoria saying the biggest resources boom since the 19th century will spur the economy and monetary policy will have to play its part in containing the upswing.
Also shortening the odds for a rate hike are stronger-than-expected June quarter national accounts, a consistent improvement in the local jobs markets and some calming in international financial markets, Mr Oster said.
"There are now enough straws in the wind for us to believe that the tightening phase may well begin sooner rather than later and probably before the release of the next CPI reading in late October."
NAB said the RBA's recent comments reflected a similar tone used after the September 2009 and February 2010 meetings, which both preceded a 25-basis-point rise. The next RBA policy meeting is on Oct. 5.
Earlier this week, former RBA economist Paul Bloxham said he expects the central bank to lift rates five times over the next 15 months, leaving the rate at 5.75 per cent by the end of 2011.
NAB expects the cash rate to be increased to 5.5 per cent by the end of 2011.