New Galaxy Poll: Labor Gains, but Gillard Still Trails Abbott and Rudd
Voters' support for the Australian Labor Party surged over the past three months, according to the latest Galaxy Poll commissioned by News Ltd, but Prime Minister Julia Gillard still faces the spectre of defeat if elections were held today.
Not only has Opposition Leader Tony Abbott raised his chances of becoming the next prime minister, but Gillard, the new survey said, is likely to be vanquished by the man she replaced in 2010, Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd.
If the choice for the next prime minister would have to come out from the ALP, Australian voters would easily pick Rudd over Gillard, according to the Galaxy Poll, which surveyed 1,001 participants from across Australia.
Rudd garnered 52 percent of voters' preference while the prime minister only attracted 30 percent, the survey said.
The only consolation for Gillard is if the Labor contest for the leadership becomes three-way, she is well secured on second spot.
Voters, the survey revealed, would be more willing to retain the current prime minister, who got 27 percent over another Labor contender, Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten, who only managed to please some 14 percent of ALP supporters.
Still, Rudd would easily trounce the other two Labor figures, with a commanding lead of 44 percent.
However, before they train their attention on neutralising each other, both Rudd and Gillard will need to worry first the lead that the Coalition had established, which the new Galaxy data said has retreated but still tops the ALP.
In an election scenario that includes all political parties, the Galaxy survey showed that the Coalition leads by 48 percent, down from the 51 percent it mustered in October.
Gillard's party came in second at 34 percent, jumping from last year's 29 percent, while the Australian Green Party posted the same 12 percent share it achieved in October.
Yet if the contest would be locked between the ALP and the Coalition, the latter enjoys an edge of 54 percent while Labor inched closer by four points, increasing its October Galaxy number of 42 percent to 46 percent.
The new survey highlighted the need for Labor to catch up on its nearest rival if it wants to retain the government, according to Galaxy Research chief executive David Briggs.
It also suggested that Labor's fortunes would witness dramatic improvement if the party would field Rudd in lieu of Gillard to thwart Abbott's ambition to occupy The Lodge, Briggs added.
"While the poll suggests Labor is within striking distance of the Coalition, Julia Gillard continues to trail Kevin Rudd as the best choice to lead Labor by a wide margin," the Galaxy Research chief told The Herald Sun on Monday.
The latest survey, the Herald Sun said, was conducted on Friday and Saturday, just a day after the Australia Day fiasco that saw Gillard being evacuated by her security escorts from a restaurant when aboriginal activists surrounded it.
The data were also collected in the immediate aftermath of Independent MP Andrew Wilkie's decision to withdraw his support from the Labor-led government.
Wilkie expressed his disgust at Gillard's abandonment of the gambling reform bill that she had reportedly pledged after the 2010 general elections in order to win his support for the establishment of a Labor government.