New Zealand Still Has A 'Rock Star' Economy Amid Concerns Over Falling Dairy Prices
New Zealand’s economy still has a “rock star” status amid lower dairy prices and the slow growth of the country’s trading partners. HSBC chief economist Paul Bioxham who first called the economy a rock star in Jan. 2014, still sees a strong growth in New Zealand.
In Bioxham’s recent Asian economy quarterly report, he said several indicators showed that New Zealand is supported by a construction boom. He added that 15 out of 16 sectors contribute to the growth of the country’s gross domestic product.
The report said overall GDP growth was well-above the trend at 3.5 percent year on year. 3News reports that other economists have moved from using the term rock star to a “Goldilocks” economy and predicted steady growth for the economy.
For the first time in 42 years, the New Zealand dollar has almost reached parity with the Australian dollar. Some early signs were also observed such as domestic prices picking up. Bioxham believes the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is unlikely to cut interest rates for the year.
“In contrast to current market pricing, which suggests the Reserve Bank is likely to cut rates by Q3 this year, we still think they are more likely to remain on hold,” said Bioxham. New Zealand’s economy is largely driven by the reconstruction in Christchurch, supported by a strong population growth due to migration.
The construction boom has created jobs with employment rate up 3.5 percent year on year. Bioxham noted that the high employment rate has boosted income and confidence that also support increased consumer spending.
The HSBC economists said he was surprised about how concerned New Zealand policymakers were regarding the high level of the NZ dollar and the impact on exporters. Bioxham revealed that much of the data do not support their concerns. He explained that economic growth remains strong and “broad-based.”
Bioxham’s report came days after New Zealand Prime Minister John Key warned that Australia’s sharper than expected slowdown is threatening growth in the country. He told CNBC that Australia could affect New Zealand since it is a big part of the country’s economy. Australia is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner.
New Zealand’s top exports are oil, wine and cheese, according to the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research. Mr. Key said New Zealand is concerned about the slump in dairy prices and low demand from China. He added that the government will unlikely get involved in providing assistance to the dairy industry but he assured heavy investments in science and innovation to maintain farm productivity.
To report problems or leave feedback on this article, contact: r.su@ibtimes.com.au