Nomura Yearender Report Says Age of Crisis Is Over Performance of Global Stocks in 2014 Depends on Earnings Delivery
Along with the close of the year 2013 is the end of the age of crisis, Japanese investment bank Nomura said in its yearend report and forecast for the global economy for 2014.
Titled The End of the End of the World, the report noted that the global financial crisis that started in 2008 unofficially ended this year as the U.S. property market started to recover the past 20 months, there was an improvement in the balance sheets of the U.S. household, the Chinese currency strengthened and there is finally growth in Europe.
For 2014, Nomura strategist Michael Kurtz wrote that it would be a year in which macrosystemic risks will not dominate equity performance. Neither will returns be lost along by risk compression and multiple expansion.
Instead, Mr Kurtz said global stocks in 2014 "will stand or fall in large part" by their ability to deliver earnings. Next year, the global economy should expect a reasonably robust growth platform for global corporate earnings.
He cited economists' forecast of a global nominal GDP growth rate of 7 per cent from 2013's 6.1 per cent. However, the growth would be unevenly skewed toward the developed market economies, while emerging markets would experience plateau and China's growth would be moderate at 6.9 per cent.
The bank warned investors that they would not make considerable gains on lingering fears of collapse as markets would require actual growth.
Mr Kurtz explained, "From here, equities will increasingly require more of a growth rationale for upside, rather than the macro-risk compression of 2012-13. The fact is, after fairly undramatic passages (by 2010-12 standards) of such episodes this year as the Cyprus banking failure and October's US fiscal standoff, very few developments from here are likely to rise to the level of true systemic contagion threats. But this also begs the question where the superlative earnings growth will be found."
The bank hinted it would likely be in Japan and Europe, while the U.S. will experience margin compression. Among sectors, the growth has higher chances of being found in technology, consumer discretionary stocks and financials, Nomura said.
Here are more forecast for next year.
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