Nov RBA Minutes Signal of Rate Hold than Cut Backs
Analysts are in agreement that the door was left ajar for rate policy adjustments in the months ahead even as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) November board meeting suggests no prominent hints on another round of rates cut back soon.
For the current month, the RBA board moved to push back the rate to 4.5 percent, which came a year after the central bank pegged the level at 4.75 percent, marking too a policy slide last seen on April 2009.
Arguing that unsettling indicators do exist in the global market situation while inflationary concerns have somewhat dissipated, the RBA insisted on the significance of its decision to reduce the country's cash rate while suggesting that the November level may hold for some time.
That spectre, of course, will hinge on global market conditions, which the RBA board concedes have become unpredictable and worrisome at the same time, and domestic developments, specifically in the realm of inflation monitoring.
"The case for an easing in policy was that there had clearly been material changes to the recent course of, and outlook for, underlying inflation over recent months, while the downside risks for the global economy had increased," the RBA minutes released on Tuesday said.
With a financial environment that is more manageable as compared to the volatility in the past quarters, the RBA is more inclined to see 'more neutral monetary policy' that it hopes would spur consistent growth movements and achieve inflation numbers akin to its ideal band of two to three percent in the medium term.
No further pause on the cash rate should be expected, the RBA minutes said, except in the eventuality that global economic event warrant such policy and judging from recent happenings, except the current Eurozone case, such proposition is quite remote for now, the board added.
With the situation in Europe appears far from being resolved, leading to fiscal prudence and tighter credit decisions for many economies around the world, "the risk to the global economy still seemed to lie predominantly on the downside, notwithstanding the positive initial reception of the recent announcements."
On other hand, the general financial situation, the RBA said, has improved, which it admitted prompted its decision to cut down the interest rate for November, creating an impression among analysts that more cuts are forthcoming, though the signals emitted by the central bank are somewhat weak on that respect.
Amidst the absence of glaring evidence for further cut backs, experts are still anticipating that cash rate reductions could be implemented between December and February, with Westpac predicting that 75 basis point could be shaved off over the next three months.
At most, CMC Markets chief market strategist Michael McCarthy told the Australian Associated Press (AAP) that the RBA has not "moved to a more accommodating phase at this stage ... (and in any event) it is going to act cautiously on this."