The Overnight Report: Summit In View
By Greg Peel
The Dow rose 66 points, or 0.5%, while the S&P gained 0.2% to 1494 and the Nasdaq added 0.3%.
We all know the old adage: "Why do today what you can put off till tomorrow?" It was with this in mind that last night the Republican majority House voted to extend the US debt ceiling decision for three months, allowing time for negotiations on spending cuts. From a stock market trader/investor point of view, it's a case of "out of sight, out of mind".
The debt ceiling is of course linked to our old mate the fiscal cliff, and it was a postponement of the full impact of Cliff as the clock struck 2013 which has provided the way forward for US stocks to reassert their rally. It was the Cliff postponement to 2013 in 2011 that allowed for the big rally of 2012 ? that, and QE3. That must surely by now be almost crushed beyond recognition. But either way, all talk now on the Street, as the net positive quarterly earnings results roll in, is of just how close the all-time highs of October 2007 really are.
In Dow terms, we're talking 386 points from last night's close to 14,165. In S&P 500 terms, it's 71 to 1565 (5%). Traders have nevertheless noted that 1500 mark will provide the usual psychological resistance, and a stiff technical resistance point exists at 1516. But with net quarterly earnings results proving solid to date (measured against much marked down forecasts), a continuation of that trend might be enough to achieve the unbelievable ? a complete wipe out of the GFC event in US stock market terms. Is this justified?
Don't fight the Fed.
Aside from QE and earnings recovery, the following chart demonstrates another underlying factor of the Wall Street rally: