The Overnight Report: Weary Wall Street
By Greg Peel
The Dow closed up 4 points while the S&P rose 1 point to 1193 and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%.
The Nasdaq was lower last night largely due to a weak lead from PC manufacturer Dell, which provided disappointing third quarter guidance after the bell on Tuesday night. This was taken as another indicator of a slowing US economy because Dell is considered somewhat of an economic bellwether. The question must be asked, however: Do slowing PC sales reflect a weak economy or a hint of impending PC obsolescence?
The flat close for the less tech-weighted indices belied another session of volatility, which saw the Dow up 120 points at 11am and down 80 points at 2pm. Volumes were back to pre-turmoil levels, albeit still not bad for the summer holidays.
Summer holidays? That's right ? we were going to take some of those, we can hear Wall Street traders think. Perhaps now we can, and we're exhausted.
The lower volume and flat close last night was largely due to Wall Street not really being able to find direction. The session started with a flurry, but rather than meeting determined sellers it merely ran out of buyers. The Dow then fell 200 points, but next it was the sellers' turn to run out of enthusiasm. Wall Street has bounced back from the S&P downgrade-inspired plunge, but that just takes us back to worrying about a slowing US economy. There is much talk of value available, particularly via dividend yields, but what of earnings forecasts? Surely the E in PE must come down (and hence PEs will look less cheap) as analysts adjust their forecasts for a weaker GDP growth expectation? Best now wait to see what they come up with.
And then of course there's still Europe to worry about. When we left Wall Street at the close on Tuesday night, traders were concerned that eurozone bond markets had not yet had a chance to respond to what was considered by many to be a disappointing outcome from the Merkozy meeting. The fear was that the bond vigilantes would go back to hammering Club Med bonds, and maybe French bonds too.