By Peter Switzer, Switzer Super Report

27 January 2012

Okay, the stock market has been nice to investors since October with Wall Street up over 20% and we have put on more than 10%, but the critical question is can it last?

An even more interesting question is: can Aussie stocks surge over 40% as one very credible expert predicts?

There is now no question that the United States is doing miles better than most so-called economic and market experts predicted, present analyst excepted, and this development in total provides a growing number of positives that will eventually turn the persistent 'go nowhere' stock market we have coped with for around two years.

Low rate pledge

On Australia Day, the US Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, gave stocks a future boost by saying interest rates won't be rising until 2014! In Australia, most experts are tipping a cut in February and some are going for a doubling up with another cut in March.

I doubt we'll get a double-down play from the Reserve Bank of Australia, though if the European Union plays its usual disappointing game and a financial meltdown threatens, we would see double downs alright and they could be 0.50 percentage point cuts as well!

I personally rule this outcome out based on what the EU knows is sensible, achievable and terrible. Working through the challenges of the possible debt defaulters of, say, Greece and Portugal is both sensible and achievable, but if they walk away from their debts, it could lead to a terrible contagion. This is unthinkable but still possible and that's why there has been a measured lift in stock prices lately rather than the boom that will eventually happen.

I hate guessing market moves based on what people in power do ? I'd rather it be based on economic, financial and business trends, as I'm trained for those kinds of things. However, the unpredictable nature of the Portuguese, Italians, the Irish, Greeks and Spaniards ? or the PIIGS ? is more the domain of psychologists!

That said, if the EU and the eurozone can achieve a credible set of agreements from its members, and interest rates keep falling or remain low, then investors will drift back to stocks first and then eventually zoom back.

I reckon if nothing convincing happens, that the worst will be behind us by April, then the old market clich