Poll Says Labor Will Win If Rudd Returns as Party Leader
Pollster Warns of Impact on Labor of Rudd's Novelty Wearing Off
Support for incumbent Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard is at a record low, according to a survey by Fairfax/Nielsen released Monday. But the Australian Labor Party still has hopes of winning if it brings back Kevin Rudd.
The poll said Labor is behind the Coalition with a 42 per cent rating, while the Coalition has 58 per cent. But the numbers would switch if were the former prime minister to become party leader again.
The survey also showed that Gillard was preferred by only 19 per cent of survey respondents as Labor leader compared to her predecessor who got 44 per cent.
Other party leaders logged lower ratings than Gillard. Stephen Smith got 10 per cent, Simon Crean 8 per cent, Bill Shorten 5 per cent and Greg Combet 4 per cent.
Nielsen poll director John Stirton said it was obvious at this point that Rudd could boost Labor's chance of winning an election from its current low rating, but he warned it could just be a warming-up period which could sink immediately if the novelty of Rudd's return to politics wears off.
"In the Coalition leadership struggle between Andrew Peacock and John Howard in the 1980s, there were periods when each man was more popular as alternative leader than he was as leader - a classic 'grass-is-always-greener' phenomenon that Labor MPs should keep in mind," Stirton told The Sydney Morning Herald.
Approval ratings of Gillard dipped to 32 per cent, which is the lowest for a prime minister since Paul Keating got the same rating in August 1994. Opposition leader Tony Abbott's approval rating was constant at 43 per cent and as preferred prime minister was at 48 per cent, versus Gillard's 40 per cent.
Among the reasons for Gillard's disfavor are the debates over the Malaysian asylum seekers amid a High Court decision to bring the Malaysians back, and the introduction of legislation on the carbon tax.
The prime minister will lead on Monday a Cabinet meeting in Canberra to discuss Labor's options for offshore processing following the High Court decision that the Malaysia solution was not lawful. Abbott is expected to push for laws that would limit to a Pacific solution for the islands of Nauru and Manus, but minus Malaysia.
The same polls showed that 54 per cent of the survey respondents favored allowing asylum seeks to be allowed to land in Australia to be assessed, while 25 percent would rather have the refugees processed offshore.