Post Qaddafi Era: New Libya Government Hopes to Resume Oil Production, Exports Sooner
Libya Begins Slow, Difficult March Towards Economic Stability
The death of the infamous tyrant Muammar Qaddafi, who ruled his country for 42 years, has paved the way for Libya's shift towards political and economic stability.
However, observers believe that the transition will be very slow and difficult.
Libya boasts of the biggest oil reserves in the African region and these are seen as the primary factors in fuelling the country's recovery.
Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) foresee that Libya can bring back production figures to 1 million barrels daily within the next 6 months and achieve the pre-war levels before the end of 2012. Libya used to produce approximately 1.4 million barrels of high-value, light sweet crude before the conflict began in 2011, according to The Australian.
However, for oil production to stabilize, most analysts say that security is imperative and that oil production would be closely linked to the steadiness of the political transition process.
Oil production in Libya has accounted for almost 95 percent of export revenues and 75 percent of government receipts in 2010, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
CNN has reported that with the fall of Qaddafi, the concentration of Libya's new government is to stimulate the country's investments and strengthen relationships with its neighbours particularly Algeria and Nigeria. Under the despotic ruler, Libya's economy was shut down to the rest of the world and there were practically no foreign relations.
Qaddafi's demise could hasten the return of Libyan oil production to normal although his death would do little to affect the prices of crude oil in the world market.
Likewise, it removes one of the risk factors to a prolonged "ramp-up in oil manufacturing" in the country.
There are varied reactions on how the loss of Qaddafi would affect prices of oil in the world markets. An independent oil analyst from Kuwait said that this development would have a huge impact on the stability of oil prices while another forecaster claimed that there will not be much of an effect since oil prices will continue to rise and fall due to the European debt crisis.
Still another opinion is that the return of Libyan crude could lower the price in international markets although admittedly, it would be difficult for Libya to get back to normal oil production for a considerable period due to the immaturity of the new government and possibility of in-fighting.